Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, October 29, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on seven polls, ranging from 38% (Quinnipiac) to 46% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 42%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday), which is 12 points higher than his approval rating.
Special Report: Overview of Impeachment Polling and Media Coverage
Download your free copy of an in-depth report prepared by Certus Insights that reviews public opinion trends on impeachment. The report details media coverage of the impeachment issue, examining the volume of coverage, most shared publications and news articles. Download link: click here
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 32%
Elizabeth Warren: 20%
Bernie Sanders: 20%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Kamala Harris: 6%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
Tom Steyer: %
Cory Booker: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: The Politico/Morning Consult poll continues to show Biden holding onto first place with Warren and Sanders battling for second. Since last week’s poll, Biden went up 2 points, Warren went down 1 point, Sanders went up 2 points, Buttigieg went up 1 point and Gabbard went up 1 point…. In the subsample of early primary states (IA, NH, SC and NV), Biden leads with 29%, then Sanders with 18%, Warren with 17% and Buttigieg with 8%….Personal ratings among Democrats: Sanders 76% favorable/18% unfavorable, Biden 74% favorable/19% unfavorable, Warren 68% favorable/15% unfavorable and Buttigieg 48% favorable/13% unfavorable.
LOUISIANA: GOVERNOR 2019
Among voters statewide
Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) over Eddie Rispone (R): +3 (50-47)
RON’S COMMENT: These numbers include leaners and show a close contest. Another poll we recently reported had the race tied, 47-47…. In this survey, Democrat Edwards leads blacks 88-8 and white Democrats 60-37. Rispone leads white independents 56-38 and Republicans 79-17. Women favor Edwards 52-42 and men favor Rispone 53-44…. Ultimately, this race is aboutturnout. A high African American turnout along with a low white turnout (especially in the northern and central parts of the state) would re-elect Edwards. A high white turnout, especially among Trump supporters, would elect Rispone…. This poll also shows that 52% of Louisiana’s voters approve of Trump’s job performance––which is 10 points higher than Trump’s national average. Additionally, it finds that 54% oppose impeachment and 36% favor it…. The runoff election is Nov. 16. Media buys are hot and heavy.
Among voters nationwide
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Joe Biden: 47%/44%
Brett Kavanaugh: 36%/34%
Mike Pence: 44%/44%
Rudy Giuliani: 30%/52%
Barack Obama: 61%/34%
Amy Klobuchar: 23%/20%
Bernie Sanders: 49%/42%
Donald Trump: 42%/54%
Elizabeth Warren: 39%/39%
Mitt Romney: 39%/42%
Nancy Pelosi: 38%/49%
RON’S COMMENT: Note that these rating are among all voters. Biden, Kavanaugh, Obama, Klobuchar and Sanders have net positive ratings, the rest are either even are net negative. Also notice that Trump’s favorability rating matches today’s Lunchtime Politics average job rating, 42-54.
Of the Democratic presidential candidates in the Oct. 15 debate, how many have served as mayor? Name them.
(see answer below)
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Politico/Morning Consult, Oct.
LOUISIANA: JMC Analytics, Oct. 24-26
FAVORABILITY RATINGS: Grinnell/Selzer, Oct. 17-23
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
Special Report: Overview of Polling and Media Coverage on Impeachment
Download your free copy of an in-depth report prepared by Certus Insights that reviews public opinion trends on impeachment. The report details media coverage of the impeachment issue, examining the volume of coverage, most shared publications and most shared news articles. Download link: click here
Four candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination who appeared in the Oct. 15 debate are current or former mayors:
1. Bernie Sanders, former mayor of Burlington. VT.
2. Pete Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, IN.
3. Cory Booker, former mayor of Newark, NJ.
4. Julian Castro, former mayor of San Antonio, TX.
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