Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, October 10, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 40% (Quinnipiac) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday), which is 11 points higher than his approval rating.
IMPEACHMENT & REMOVAL
Among voters nationwide
Fox News Poll
Do you think President Trump should be impeached and removed from office, or not?
Yes: 51%
No: 43%
RON’S COMMENT: This Fox News poll shows a majority of voters now favor impeachment and removal. That’s up 9 points from the end of July. By party: 85% of Democrats, 39% of independents and 13% of Republicans favor impeaching and removing Trump from office in this poll.
The Economist Poll
If the U.S. House of Representatives votes to impeach Donald Trump, do you think the U.S. Senate should or should not remove him from office?
Should remove from office: 48%
Should NOT remove from office: 44%
RON’S COMMENT: 86% of Democrats, 36% of independents and 10% of Republicans favor removing Trump from office in this poll from The Economist. Women favor removing Trump from office over men by 9 points. Note the wording differences between this poll and the Fox News poll above.
Do you think an elected official should or should not be impeached and removed from office for withholding foreign aid to a country until it agrees to investigate a political opponent?
Should be removed from office: 52%
Should not be removed from office: 30%
Not sure: 19%
RON’S COMMENT: 81% of Democrats, 41% of independents and 17% of Republicans favor removing an official from office for withholding foreign aid to a country until it agrees to investigate a political opponent. Note that this poll question probes the issue conceptually, without regard to Trump by name.
ELECTABILITY OF DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES
Among Democrats nationwide
If the candidate listed below were to become the Democratic nominee, do you think they would beat or lose to Donald Trump in the 2020 Presidential election?
% = Would probably beat Trump/Would probably lose
Elizabeth Warren: 64%/16%
Joe Biden: 64%/17%
Bernie Sanders: 53%/25%
Kamala Harris: 42%/28%
Pete Buttigieg: 34%/27%
RON COMMENT: Democrats think both Biden and Warren have an equal chance to beat Trump. This is good news for Warren. Biden’s greatest strength has been perceptions of his general election electability, so if Warren now ties him for that among Democrats, it’s a blow to Biden’s future viability as a nomination candidate. Keep in mind: voter perceptions of future electability do NOT have to be accurate to be meaningful.
PERCEPTIONS OF DISCRIMINATION IN U.S.
Among adults nationwide
Women: How much discrimination do [women] face in America today?
A great deal: 19%
A fair amount: 39%
Not much/none: 43%
Men: How much discrimination do [men] face in America today?
A great deal: 11%
A fair amount: 18%
Not much/none: 71%
Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual: How much discrimination do [lesbian, gay and bisexual people] face in America today?
A great deal: 29%
A fair amount: 34%
Not much/none: 37%
Transgender: How much discrimination do [transgender] face in America today?
A great deal: 39%
A fair amount: 30%
Not much/none: 31%
Christians: How much discrimination do [Christians] face in America today?
A great deal: 18%
A fair amount: 25%
Not much/none: 57%
Jewish people: How much discrimination do [Jewish people] face in America today?
A great deal: 17%
A fair amount: 43%
Not much/none: 41%
Muslim people: How much discrimination do [Muslim people] face in America today?
A great deal: 36%
A fair amount: 34%
Not much/none: 30%
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
IMPEACHMENT & REMOVAL: Fox News, Oct. 6-8; The Economist/YouGov, Oct. 6-8
ELECTABILITY, DISCRIMINATION: The Economist/YouGov, Oct. 6-8
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