LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Impeachment, Ethics, Ukraine – Dems Lead Trump, Warren Tops Biden

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, October 9, 2019

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 40% (Quinnipiac) to 46% (The Economist, Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 42%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 11 points higher than his approval rating.

Among voters nationwide

Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +11 (51-40)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +8 (49-41)
Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +7 (49-42)
RON’S COMMENT: All three Democrats lead Trump, with Biden doing best. It should be noted that this poll, conducted by Quinnipiac, often shows Democrats doing better than do other polls.

Among Democratic voters nationwide

% = Quinnipiac/The Economist = Average
Elizabeth Warren: 29%/29% = 29
Joe Biden: 26%/25% = 25.5
Bernie Sanders: 16%/14% = 15
Pete Buttigieg: 4%/5% = 4.5
Kamala Harris: 3%/5% = 4
Andrew Yang: 3%/3% = 3
Steve Bullock: -/2% = 1
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: These two new polls put Warren ahead of Biden nationwide…. Among white Democrats in the Quinnipiac survey, she’s leading Biden 35-23. Warren is also winning the most liberal Democrats with 38% to 26% for Sanders and 11% for Biden. Biden wins moderates, getting 35% to Warren’s 22% and Sanders’ 12%. Warren beats Biden by 4 points among women and 3 points among men.

Among voters nationwide

Do you think that President Trump should be impeached and removed from office, or don’t you think so?
Yes/impeach and remove: 45%
No: 49%
RON’S COMMENT: 45% want to impeach and remove Trump, that’s up from 37% two weeks ago. Now, 6% of Republicans, 85% of Democrats and 43% of independents want impeachment and removal. The fact that 94% of Republicans oppose impeachment and removal explains why Republican members of Congress want no part of this process…. Impeachment will only gain real traction in public opinion when a clear majority of independents plus a much higher percentage of Republicans say they favor removing the president.

Among adults nationwide

Do you think President Trump does or does not uphold adequate standards for ethics
in government? 
Does: 35%   
Does not: 60%   
No opinion: 5%
RON’S COMMENT: 14% of Democrats, 68% of Republicans and 31% of independents say Trump does uphold adequate standards for ethics.
If Joe Biden became president, do you think he would or would not uphold adequate
standards for ethics in government?
Would: 47%   
Would not: 38%   
No opinion: 15%
RON’S COMMENT: 72% of Democrats, 27% of Republicans and 45% of independents say Biden would uphold adequate standards for ethics.
As you may know, Congress has begun an impeachment inquiry that could lead to Trump being removed from office. Do you think Congress should or should not have begun an impeachment inquiry of Trump? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? 
Should have: 58%
Should not have: 38%
RON’S COMMENT: 86% of Democrats, 28% of Republicans and 57% of independents say Congress should have begun an impeachment inquiry. The 28% number is raising eyebrows.
As you may know, official White House notes from a July phone call showed President
Trump asking the President of Ukraine to investigate former vice president Joe Biden
and his son, Hunter. Do you think Trump’s request was appropriate, or inappropriate?
Appropriate: 32%   
Inappropriate: 62%
No opinion: 6%
RON’S COMMENT: 12% of Democrats, 59% of Republicans and 31% of independents say Trump’s request was appropriate. 84% of Democrats, 33% of Republicans and 63% of independents say Trump’s request was inappropriate. Note that a third of Republicans say “inappropriate.”
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Democrats in Congress have handled the impeachment inquiry? 
Approve: 49%
Disapprove: 44%
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Republicans in Congress have responded to the impeachment inquiry? 
Approve: 33%
Disapprove: 56%

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENT: NATIONWIDE: Quinnipiac, Oct. 4-7
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Quinnipiac, Oct. 4-7; The Economist/YouGov, Oct. 6-8
ETHICS, IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY, UKRAINE: Washington Post/Schar School, Oct. 1-6
IMPEACHMENT: Quinnipiac, Oct. 4-7

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