LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Americans Rate BiBi – Florida, Texas, California – Kansas Senate – U.S. Foe

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, September 20, 2019

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 43% (Reuters, Politico) to 52% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 45%. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as yesterday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating. 

Lunchtime Politics will not be published Monday and Tuesday. See you back Wednesday.

Among voters statewide

Donald Trump (R) and Elizabeth Warren (D): even (50-50)
Donald Trump (R) over Joe Biden (D): +1 (50-49)
Donald Trump (R) over Bernie Sanders (I/D): +1 (50-49) 
Donald Trump (R) over Kamala Harris (D): +4 (52-48) 
RON’S COMMENT: Florida, with its 29 Electoral votes, is the most sought-after swing state in the nation. Trump beat Hillary Clinton here by a point in 2016, and these new poll numbers show another close race may be in the offing. Perhaps, surprisingly, Warren does slightly better than do the other Democrats in the state, tying the president. Trump edges Biden, Sanders and Harris…. History: Florida has voted Republican in three of the last six presidential elections. In 2018, Republicans won brutal gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races by narrow margins.

Among voters nationwide

Among all general election voters:
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +2 (40-38)
Beto O’Rourke (D) over Donald Trump (R): +2 (42-40)
Donald Trump (R) over Elizabeth Warren (D): +3 (40-37)
Donald Trump (R) over Bernie Sanders (I/D): +2 (40-38) 
Donald Trump (R) over Kamala Harris (D): +7 (39-32) 
Donald Trump (R) over Pete Buttigieg (D): +9 (39-30)
RON’S COMMENT: It’s still hard to believe that Texas won’t remain red in this presidential election, but current poll numbers show it’s surprisingly close. This poll, as some others have, finds that Texas––at least at this point––is competitive. Both Biden and O’Rourke edge Trump, while Warren and Sanders run close…. Looking at the poll internals: Biden beats Trump 75-3 among Democrats and 33-21 among independents. Trump beats Biden 82-8 among Republicans…. One issue with this poll is the high “Neither/Other” percentages. It’s hard to tell how that’s impacting the trial heat numbers. In the Biden vs. Trump trial heat, that number is 13%, which is in addition to 9% saying “not sure.”
Among Democratic primary voters statewide:
Joe Biden: 28% 
Beto O’Rourke: 19%
Bernie Sanders: 17%
Elizabeth Warren: 11%
Cory Booker: 6%
Kamala Harris: 6%
Pete Buttigieg: 4% 
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Among white Democratic primary voters in Texas, it’s Biden 27%, O’Rourke 16%, Sanders 13% and Warren 13%. Among Hispanics, it’s Biden 24%, O’Rourke 23%, Sanders 22% and Warren 11%. Among blacks, it’s Biden 32%, O’Rourke 25%, Sanders 15%, Harris 11%, Booker 5% and Warren 3%.

Among Democratic primary voters statewide

Elizabeth Warren: 25%
Bernie Sanders: 23%
Joe Biden: 18% 
Kamala Harris: 11%
Pete Buttigieg: 10% 
Andrew Yang: 3%
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
Cory Booker: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: If this poll is accurate, it’s bad news for Biden––showing Warren and Sanders overtaking him in California. Sanders wins 18-34 year-old voters, Warren wins 35-49 and 50-64 year old voters, and Biden and Warren are tied among those 65 and older. Harris has a 3-point lead over Biden among black voters, and Sanders has a 17-point lead over Warren and Biden among Latinx voters.

Among voters statewide

Barry Grissom (D) over Kris Kobach (R): +10 (52-42)
RON’S COMMENT: GOP party officials fear that Kobach, if nominated, could cost the Republican Party this Senate seat. That may be good thinking––based on results from this poll, conducted several months ago for the NRSC…. Sen. Pat Roberts (R) is not seeking re-election and quite a few national party leaders are trying to get U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to jump into the race…. Republican Kobach is a well-known former state official who lost a bid for governor last year. His personal rating is well under water, at 32% favorable/50% unfavorable. It’s been reported by the Wall Street Journal that every other Republican tested in the poll beats Democrat Grissom by at least 8 points…. Grissom is a former U.S. Attorney.

Among voters nationwide

If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for? 
Democratic candidate: 48% (same as last week)
Trump: 40% (+1 from last week)
It depends: 9%
RON’S COMMENT: The “generic” Democrat was ahead by 9 points last week, now it’s 8 points. Should be noted: 3% of Hillary Clinton voters from 2016 now say they’d vote for Trump and 5% of Trump voters now say they’d vote for the Democratic candidate.

Among U.S. voters nationwide

Who do you think is the United States’ greatest foe? 
Russia: 26% 
China: 19%
The Taliban: 15%
Iran: 13%
North Korea: 10% 
Not sure: 16% 
RON’S COMMENT: 36% of Democrats say Russia, while 11% of Republicans do…. 8% of Democrats say China, while 27% of Republicans do…. Amazing how perceptions of foreign adversaries are tied up in pro- and anti-Trump politics.

Among U.S. voters nationwide

Israel: Friend or Foe?
Do you consider [Israel] to be a friend or an enemy of the United States? 
Ally: 46%
Friendly: 26%
Unfriendly: 10%
Enemy: 6%
Not sure: 13%
Benjamin Netanyahu Rating
Favorable: 38%
Unfavorable: 37%
RON’S COMMENT: While 72% of U.S. voters regard Israel as an ally or friend, they’re split on Prime Minister Netanyahu, who has just fought another close and inconclusive national election…. U.S. partisan divide: 14% of Democrats have favorable feelings toward Netanyahu, while 59% of Republicans do.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
FLORIDA: FAU BEPI, Sept. 12-15
CALIFORNIA: Change Research, Sept. 12-15
TEXAS: University of Texas at Tyler, Sept. 13-15 
KANSAS: Poll conducted for National Republican Senatorial Committee, June 9-11

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