LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Florida, New Jersey – Biden vs. Warren – Trump Losing to Dems

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, September 19, 2019

Down 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 43% (Reuters, Politico) to 49% (Rasmussen). The fourth poll has it at 44%. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (+1 from yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.

Among voters nationwide

Fox News poll:
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +14 (52-38)
Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +8 (48-40)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +6 (46-40)
Kamala Harris (D) over Donald Trump (R): +2 (42-40)
SurveyUSA poll:
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +8 (49-41)
Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +5 (48-43)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +2 (45-43)
Donald Trump (R) and Kamala Harris (D): even (44-44)
RON’S COMMENT: Democrats are beating Trump in all four trial heats in the Fox News poll and in three of the four trial heats in the SurveyUSA poll. Democrats do better in the Fox polling…. Since a month ago––Biden’s lead over Trump in the Fox News poll has expanded from 12 to 14 points, Warren’s lead has slightly dipped from 7 to 6 points, Sanders’ lead has slightly dipped from 9 to 8 points and Harris’ lead has dropped from 6 to 2 points…. In the Fox News pollBiden does better with women than Warren: He wins women by 22 points, she wins women by 14 points. Biden also wins men by 3 points and Warren loses men by 2 points. Trump wins whites against Biden by 2 points, and he wins whites by 8 points against Warren. Biden wins blacks 83-9 and Warren wins blacks 71-11.

Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

% = Fox News/SurveyUSA = Average
Joe Biden: 29%/33% = 31
Bernie Sanders: 18%/17% = 17.5
Elizabeth Warren: 16%/19% = 17.5
Kamala Harris: 7%/6% = 6.5
Pete Buttigieg: 5%/5% = 5
Beto O’Rourke: 4%/4% = 4
Cory Booker: 3%/4% = 3.5
Andrew Yang: 2%/3% = 2.5
Amy Klobuchar: 2%/1% = 1.5
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
Two-Way Race
Joe Biden over Elizabeth Warren: +16 (53-37)
RON’S COMMENT: These two post-debate polls show Biden on top with Warren and Sanders trading places for second. Both show O’Rourke and Booker perking up slightly. In the Fox News poll, 56% of Democrats say they want to nominate the candidate with the best chance to beat Trump, while 31% say they want the candidate they like the most…. The Fox News poll includes a two-way race showing Biden beating Warren by 16 points. It also shows that 76% of Democrats would be satisfied if either Biden or Warren win the nomination. 
Do you think Democrats will have a tougher time defeating President Trump in the presidential election if the party nominates a candidate who is….
% = Yes, tougher time beating Trump/No
Someone who is gay: 50%/44% 
Someone who has strongly liberal views: 50%/45%  
A woman: 49%/47% 
A person of color: 39%/57% 
Someone over 70 years old: 35%/59% 
A white man over age 70: 33%/62%
RON’S COMMENT: Half of Democrats believe they would have a tougher time beating Trump if their nominee is gay or has strongly liberal views. Nearly half say the same about a woman nominee. Only a third of Democrats say they would have a tougher time beating Trump if their nominee is a white man over age 70.

Among Republican voters nationwide

Donald Trump: 86%
Bill Weld: 2%
Mark Sanford: 2%
Joe Walsh: 2%
Other: 1%
None of the above: 3%
RON’S COMMENT: I’m taking bets on this one. 

Among Democratic voters in each state

Joe Biden: 34%
Elizabeth Warren: 24%
Bernie Sanders: 14%
Pete Buttigieg: 5%
Kamala Harris: 4%
Wayne Messam: 3%
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Biden has a strong base of support in the Sunshine State: 67% of his voters say they will definitely stick with him. For Sanders, 52% say they’ll stick, and for Warren, 33% say they will stick with her…. Note that Messam registers 3%. He is mayor of Miramar, Florida, and has not qualified for any of the debates. He is a businessman and played wide receiver for the Florida State Seminoles. In 1997, he signed with the Cincinnati Bengals as an undrafted free agent. Messam is president of the National Black Caucus of Local Elected Officials.

New Jersey
Joe Biden: 26%
Elizabeth Warren: 20%
Bernie Sanders: 18%
Cory Booker: 9%
Kamala Harris: 6%
Pete Buttigieg: 6%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Booker runs fourth among Democrats in his home state of New Jersey. More evidence that the days of “favorite sons” are long gone.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENT: NATIONAL: Fox News, Sept. 15-17; SurveyUSA, Sept. 13-16
FLORIDA: FAU, Sept. 12-15

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