LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Afghanistan – Economy and 2020 – Crisis – Israeli Elections – San Diego

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, September 16, 2019

Up 1 from Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 43% (Politico) to 47% (The Hill, Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 44%. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as Friday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.

Among voters in Israel

Average of the last five party preference polls:
Likud Party: 33%
Blue and White: 32%
Joint List: 11%
Others: 6%
Latest Prime Minister preference poll:
Benjamin Netanyahu: 42%
Benny Gantz: 28%
Others: 15%
RON’S COMMENT: While Netanyahu is preferred for Prime Minister, the two major parties are neck-and-neck with Netanyahu’s Likud Party holding a slight lead. The Blue and White is an alliance that consists of the Israel Resilience, Yesh Atid and Telem. The Joint List is an alliance of the main Arab-dominated parties. The election is tomorrow.

Among voters citywide

Todd Gloria: 31%
Barbara Bry: 15%
Tasha Williamson: 8%
Undecided: 46%
RON’S COMMENT: The primary, which will be held in March, is nonpartisan. But, these three candidates are all Democrats. Gloria is a state legislator and a former City Council member. He served as interim mayor after former mayor Bob Filner resigned in 2013. Bry is a member of the City Council. Williamson is a community activist who has protested police brutality against people of color. Other possible candidates are still weighing a run.

Among voters nationwide

Are you confident in Donald Trump’s ability to deal wisely with an international crisis, or are you uneasy about his approach? 
Confident: 38%
Uneasy: 54%
Not sure: 8%
RON’S COMMENT: 85% of Democrats, 49% of independents and 14% of Republicans are uneasy with President Trump’s ability to deal wisely with an international crisis.

Among voters nationwide

Do you think the U.S. economy will get better, get worse or will it stay the same if a Democrat is elected President in 2020? 
Get better: 39%
Get worse: 39%
Stay the same: 11%
Do you think the U.S. economy will get better, get worse or will it stay the same if Donald Trump is re-elected President in 2020? 
Get better: 33%
Get worse: 46%
Stay the same: 13%
RON’S COMMENT: Voters are evenly split on whether a Democrat winning will make the economy better or worse, but more believe the economy will get worse if Trump is re-elected.

Among adults in Afghanistan

Analysis of Gallup polling in Afghanistan by Steve Crabtree: 

  • Wellbeing indicators paint a bleak picture of hopelessness and suffering among the population; in 2018, Afghans’ average ratings of their current lives and predicted ratings of their lives in five years matched or fell below previous record-lows for any country worldwide.
  • On a ladder scale where “0” represents their worst possible life and “10” their best possible life, Afghans gave an average rating of 2.7 in 2018 — tied for the lowest Gallup has recorded in any country since it began tracking these measures. Asked to predict where their lives would be in five years on the same scale, Afghans’ average response in 2018 was 2.3, a new low for any country in any year.
  • For the second consecutive year in 2018, no Afghans rated their current and future lives positively enough to be considered “thriving.” At the same time, the percentage who rated their lives so poorly that they are considered “suffering” shot to a record-high 85%. This is a new record not only for Afghanistan, but also for the world. The country also led the world in suffering in 2013, 2014 and 2017.

To read more of this analysis, click here

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
ISRAEL: Panel Project HaMidgam, Midgam, Shvakim Panorama, Smith, Panels Politics, Sept. 10-13; PM poll, Maagar Mohot, Sept. 10-11
SAN DIEGO: SurveyUSA, Sept. 3-5
INTERNATIONAL CRISIS, THE ECONOMY AND 2020: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 8-10

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