Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, September 9, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on three polls, ranging from 43% (Reuters) to 46% (The Economist, Rasmussen). President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as Friday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 29%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Elizabeth Warren: 18%
Kamala Harris: 7%
Pete Buttigieg: 4%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Beto O’Rourke: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Since early July in this poll, Biden slipped 1 point, Sanders held steady, Warren went up 6 points and Harris dropped 6 points…. Most interesting, this poll shows that 55% of Democrats would still consider another candidate and only 43% say they will stick with their current candidate. There is plenty of room for shifts and turns…. Electability: 42% of Democrats say Biden has the best chance of beating Trump, that’s down from 45% in early July. Sanders is next with 14% (down 4 points) and Warren is next at 12% (up 5 points). The poll report points out thatfewer Democratic voters are now undecided on the importance of candidate electability vs. closeness to them on issues, and “the shift to a greater focus on electability is substantial in some groups––up 20 points from April among women and college graduates alike, as well as up 17 points among whites and those with higher incomes”…. Poll internals show Democrats think a “moderate” has a better chance of beating Trump than a “liberal” by 38% to 13%, with 45% saying it doesn’t matter.
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters in each state
RON’S COMMENT: In this early-state polling from CBS/YouGov, Biden leads two of the first four primaries and caucuses (Iowa and South Carolina), Warren leads one (New Hampshire) and Sanders leads one (Nevada), some by slight margins. Also, worth noting: Warren leads second-choice votes in all four states––which will become increasingly important as more candidates drop out of the race and candidate-shopping settles down.
Iowa Caucus
Joe Biden: 29%
Bernie Sanders: 26%
Elizabeth Warren: 17%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Kamala Harris: 6%
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
Cory Booker: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This Iowa poll shows Biden and Sanders fighting for first place with Warren the only other double-digit candidate…. Warren leads the second-choice picks, with 29%, followed by Sanders at 15% and Biden at 12%.
New Hampshire Primary
Elizabeth Warren: 27%
Joe Biden: 26%
Bernie Sanders: 25%
Pete Buttigieg: 8%
Kamala Harris: 7%
Cory Booker: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: The top three contenders are bunched closely together in this New Hampshire survey, with Warren edging the field. Note that only six candidates reach at least 2% of the vote…. Warren leads the second-choice votes, with 25%, followed by Sanders at 17% and Buttigieg at 13%. Biden and Harris get 12%…. But, Biden still is the favorite in terms of electability. While 50% of Warren’s supporters and 64% of Sanders’ supporters believe their candidates would probably beat Trump, 72% of Biden supporters say the same about their candidate…. Top reason why Biden supporters like him: His time as VP with Obama. Top reason why Warren supporters like her: Her policy stances. Top reason why Sanders supporters like him: His policy stances.
Nevada Caucus
Bernie Sanders: 29%
Joe Biden: 27%
Elizabeth Warren: 18%
Kamala Harris: 6%
Pete Buttigieg: 4%
Beto O’Rourke: 3%
Julian Castro: 2%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Sanders edges Biden in Nevada for first place…. Warren leads the second-choice selections, with 29%, followed by Sanders at 19% and Biden at 15%.
South Carolina Primary
Joe Biden: 43%
Bernie Sanders: 18%
Elizabeth Warren: 14%
Kamala Harris: 7%
Pete Buttigieg: 4%
Cory Booker: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Looks like South Carolina remains Biden’s firewall among early state primaries. He gets as many votes as Sanders, Warren, Harris and Buttigieg combined…. However, Warren leads the second-choice picks, with 18%, closely followed by Sanders at 17% and Biden at 16%.
Massachusetts Primary
Joe Biden: 26%
Elizabeth Warren: 24%
Bernie Sanders: 8%
Pete Buttigieg: 5%
Kamala Harris: 3%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Biden edges Warren in her home state, and all the other candidates are stuck in single-digits, according to this Boston Globe/Suffolk survey.
SENATE: MASSACHUSETTS DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Among Democrats statewide
Joe Kennedy over Sen. Ed Markey: +14 (42-28)
RON’S COMMENT: Kennedy, a seventh-year Congressman, is leading incumbent Sen. Markey by a solid 14 points in the Democratic primary. That’s an especially dismal showing for Markey, 73, who has served in the U.S. House and Senate for a total of 42 years. Among Democrats, 38-year old Kennedy’s personal rating is 73% favorable/6% unfavorable. Markey is 59% favorable/16% unfavorable…. Kennedy beats Markey by 6 points among men and by 21 points among women…. The top three issue priorities for Democrats in Massachusetts are: Medicare-for-All (20%), higher taxes on the very wealthy (19%) and impeaching Trump (18%)…. It should be noted that while Kennedy leads Markey 42-28 in the two-candidate trial heat, he beats Markey 35-26 in a multi-candidate trial heat with minor candidates getting a combined 2% of the vote.
POLITICAL BOOKSHELF
Becoming Ronald Reagan: The Rise of a Conservative Icon, by Robert Mann, is the definitive story of our 40th president’s political evolution in the 1950s and 1960s. It examines how Reagan the Hollywood liberal became Reagan the heartland conservative. And it explains how the skills Reagan learned and lessons he absorbed during his political apprenticeship—particularly working for General Electric and hosting the hit CBS television show General Electric Theater from 1954 to 1962—made him the inspiring leader so many Americans remember. Potomac Books. Buy it here
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: ABC/Washington Post, Sept. 2-5
MASSACHUSETTS: Boston Globe/Suffolk, Sept. 3-5
IOWA, SOUTH CAROLINA, NEW HAMPSHIRE, NEVADA: CBS/YouGov, Aug. 28-Sept. 4
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