Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, August 23, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 41% (Monmouth, CNN) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 43%. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
ARIZONA: PRESIDENT
Among voters statewide
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +2 (45-43)
Donald Trump (R) over Elizabeth Warren (D): +1 (44-43)
Donald Trump (R) over Pete Buttigieg (D): +5 (43-38)
Donald Trump (R) over Kamala Harris (D): +9 (45-36)
Donald Trump (R) over Bernie Sanders (I/D): +10 (44-34)
RON’S COMMENT: Trump carried Arizona by nearly 4 points in 2016. In this poll, Biden edges him by 2 points, although Trump leads the other four Democrats tested. These numbers are particularly bad for Sanders and Harris, who are currently out of contention in this potential swing state…. Since May, Biden’s vote against Trump has declined from 49% to 45%, while Warren’s has increased slightly from 42% to 43%. Arizona voted Republican in 16 of the last 17 presidential elections.
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT
Among voters nationwide
If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for?
Democratic candidate: 48% (-2 since last week)
Trump: 40% (+1 since last week)
It depends: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: The “generic” Democrat was ahead by 11 points last week, it’s now 8 points.
TRUMP ISSUE APPROVAL
Among voters nationwide
“Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling…”
% = Approve/Disapprove
The economy: 50%/43%
Veterans: 48%/40%
Terrorism: 46%/46%
Immigration: 46%/50%
Foreign policy: 45%/50%
Taxes: 44%/49%
Abortion: 41%/48%
Civil rights: 41%/50%
Healthcare: 41%/52%
Women’s rights: 40%/48%
Education: 40%/48%
The environment: 40%/53%
Social Security: 39%/46%
Medicare: 39%/48%
Gun control: 39%/52%
Gay rights: 35%/48%
The budget deficit: 35%/57%
RON’S COMMENT: Last time we reported these numbers, Trump was net positive on three issues: the economy, veterans and terrorism. Now, he’s net positive two issues, the economy (+7) and veterans (+8) and is even on terrorism. His worst issue continues to be the budget deficit (-22).
IMPEACHMENT
Among voters nationwide
Do you think President Trump should be impeached and compelled to leave the Presidency, or not?
Yes, should: 35%
No, should not: 61%
Don’t know: 5%
RON’S COMMENT: Nancy Pelosi is right. Impeachment is a loser issue for Democrats. This poll finds that 30% of independents, 69% of Democrats and 2% of Republicans favor impeachment and removal from office…. Most voters prefer to use the ballot box to oust the president: While this poll finds that only a little more than a third of the electorate wants to impeach and remove Trump, it also finds that a solid 57% majority would prefer someone else in office.
PARTY FAVORABILITY
Among voters nationwide
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the following groups in Congress?
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Democrats in Congress: 43%/53%
Republicans in Congress: 32%/63%
RON’S COMMENT: Both parties are net negative, although Democrats continue to do better. Independents rate both Congressional parties about the same on favorability.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
ARIZONA: OHPI, Aug. 13-14
IMPEACHMENT: Monmouth Univ., Aug. 16-20
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT, TRUMP ISSUE APPROVAL, PARTY FAVORABILITY: The Economist/YouGov, Aug. 17-20
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