Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, August 1, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls. The range is 40% (Quinnipiac, Reuters) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (+2 from yesterday), which is 10 points higher than his approval.
LUNCHTIME POLITICS WILL TAKE A SHORT SUMMER BREAK STARTING TOMORROW. SEE YOU BACK IN A WEEK.
DEBATE ANALYSIS
by Ron Faucheux
The three candidates who did the most good for themselves last night were Joe Biden, Cory Booker and Tulsi Gabbard.
- While Biden’s performance was uneven, he did much better than in the first debate. He showed he could take hits from numerous directions and survive them. He also displayed more energy and the capacity to fight back. The attacks on Biden from the left may hurt him among progressive Democrats but they could be helping him in general election trial heats.
- Booker did well. His demeanor was positive and engaging. He bested Biden in the main exchange he had with him.
- Gabbard once again was impressive. Her take-down of Kamala Harris on her record as a prosecutor was the most effective of the night.
- Kamala Harris won the first debate, so expectations were high for her. But she failed to meet those expectations last night. She struggled to deflect attacks and many of her answers were less than artful. You could see her trying to replicate her success in the first debate, but it never happened.
- Julian Castro was effective getting his points across and Andrew Yangwas interesting and appealing.
- Two senators––Michael Bennet and Kirsten Gillibrand––fell short in the first debate, but they both did a good bit better last night, although fact-checkers are challenging Gillibrand’s “deterioration of the family” attack on Biden.
- As in the Tuesday night debate, Democrats left a good bit of blood on the floor when it came to the healthcare issue, especially as it related to Medicare-for-all proposals.
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT
Among voters nationwide
If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for?
Democratic candidate: 50% (+1 since last week)
Trump: 38% (-3 since last week)
It depends: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: The “generic” Democrat is now ahead by 12 points, up from 8 points last week.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 26%
Elizabeth Warren: 20%
Bernie Sanders: 13%
Kamala Harris: 11%
Pete Buttigieg: 6%
cory Booker: 3%
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
Julian Castro: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This was the last poll that was taken before this week’s debates. Compared to last week, it shows Biden +1, Warren +2 and Buttigieg -1. We will have to wait until mid- or late next week to see if last night’s debate moved any numbers.
RUSSIA INTERFERENCE IN 2020 ELECTION
Among voters nationwide
Do you believe that Russia is interfering with the 2020 U.S. Presidential election?
Yes: 48%
No: 29%
Not sure: 23%
RON’S COMMENT: 68% of Democrats and 20% of Republicans believe Russia is interfering with the 2020 election.
Which political party do you think wants to do more to protect U.S. elections from foreign interference?
Democratic Party: 41%
Republican Party: 29%
Both parties equally: 16%
Neither party: 9%
Not sure: 5%
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION, RUSSIA INTERFERENCE IN 2020
ELECTION: The Economist/YouGov, July 27-30
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