LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Trump vs. Generic Democrat – Biden Tops South Carolina, Ohio – Tom Steyer – Right/Wrong Track

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, July 26, 2019

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 46%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.

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Among voters nationwide

If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for? 
Democratic candidate: 49% (+3 since last week)
Trump: 41% (-1 since last week)
It depends: 8%
RON’S COMMENT: The “generic” Democrat is now ahead by 8 points, up from 4 points last week.  Note that this poll was conducted before yesterday’s Mueller hearings.

Among voters nationwide

Among general election voters nationwide
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +10 (49-39)
Bernie Sanders (D-I) over Donald Trump (R): +6 (46-40)
Donald Trump (R) over Elizabeth Warren (D): +1 (42-41)
Donald Trump (R) over Kamala Harris (D): +1 (41-40) 
RON’S COMMENT:  As we said in yesterday’s newsletter, Biden’s ace in the hole is his current electability over Trump. This Fox News poll shows him beating Trump and doing better than any other Democrat…. In the Biden-Trump trial heat, Biden gets 87% of Democrats, 7% of Republicans, 40% of independents, 44% of men and 53% of women…. How liberal are the Dem candidates? 40% of all general election voters say the Democratic candidates are too liberal and 37% say they’re about right. Among only Democratic voters, 16% say the Democratic candidates are too liberal and 61% say they’re about right.
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 33% 
Bernie Sanders: 15%
Elizabeth Warren: 12%
Kamala Harris: 10%
Pete Buttigieg: 5% 
Andrew Yang: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
John Hickenlooper: 2%
Cory Booker: 2%
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Since mid-June, this Fox News poll shows Biden edging up a point, from 32% to 33%, which is more evidence that he’s stabilized his position after the post-debate falloff. Also, compared to six weeks ago, Sanders is up 2, Warren is up 3, Harris is up 2, Buttigieg is down 3 and O’Rourke is 2. Notice that Yang is doing better than either Booker or O’Rourke.

Among Democratic primary voters statewide

Joe Biden: 31% 
Bernie Sanders: 14%
Kamala Harris: 14%
Elizabeth Warren: 13%
Pete Buttigieg: 6% 
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Biden posts a wide lead in this Ohio primary poll. There is a three-way fight for second place with Sanders, Harris and Warren…. Biden gets 31% from both men and women. Among whites, Biden wins with 30% and Warren is second at 16%. Among blacks, Biden is first with 36% and Sanders is second with 20%…. U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan, the only candidate who is a native Buckeye, polls only 1%. So much for favorite sons…. The Ohio primary is March 17.

Among Democratic primary voters statewide

Joe Biden: 39% 
Kamala Harris: 12%
Bernie Sanders: 10%
Elizabeth Warren: 9%
Pete Buttigieg: 5% 
Cory Booker: 2%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Biden continues to dominate the South Carolina primary, thanks to a big lead among black voters. He’s getting 45% of men, 36% of women, 24% of whites and 51% of blacks. Harris is a distant second among blacks, at 12%.

Among voters nationwide

Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? 
Right direction: 37%
Wrong track: 63%
RON’S COMMENT: 58% of men, 66% of women, 89% of Democrats, 68% of independents and 27% of Republicans say the country has “pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track.”

Among voters nationwide

Among all voters:
Favorable: 19%
Unfavorable: 28%

Among Democrats:
Favorable: 25%
Unfavorable: 16%

RON’S COMMENT: Steyer is the newest and wealthiest Democratic presidential candidate––and the only one who has spent millions on TV ads over the past year, mostly advocating Trump’s impeachment. He has two out of five Democrats rating him, which means his ads have generated some name ID, but he has a long way to go. Most polls show him getting 1%-2% of the vote.

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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT: Fox News, July 21-23 
OHIO: Quinnipiac, July 17-22 
SOUTH CAROLINA: Monmouth University, July 18-22
RIGHT/WRONG TRACK: Politico-Morning Consult, July 19-21
TOM STEYER: The Economist/YouGov, July 21-23
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate 
G = Green Party candidate 
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

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