Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, July 9, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 43% (Reuters, Morning Consult) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 46%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as yesterday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
% = Morning Consult/Emerson = Average
Joe Biden: 31%/30% = 30.5
Bernie Sanders: 19%/15% = 17
Kamala Harris: 14%/15% = 14.5
Elizabeth Warren: 13%/15% = 14
Pete Buttigieg: 6%/5% = 5.5
Beto O’Rourke: 3%/4% = 3.5
Cory Booker: 3%/2% = 2.5
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%/2% = 2
Andrew Yang: 1%/3% = 2
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Biden dropped 7 points in the Morning Consult poll since the debates, but he’s still in first place. Harris has moved up 8 points…. In the Emerson poll, there is a three-way tie for second place…. In Morning Consult’s subsample of early primary states (IA, NH, SC and NV), Biden leads with 31%, then Sanders 20%, Harris 14% and Warren 11%…. This data also shows that 69% of Harris’ vote is composed of white Democrats and 23% is composed of black Democrats.
GEN Z: OUTLOOK AND ATTITUDES
Among U.S. adults 18-21 years old
Key findings of nationwide survey of Gen Z (18-21 year olds in the U.S.):
- Making money and having a successful career are the two most universally important life goals for Gen Z adults – more than pursuing friends, family, or hobbies.
- A predominantly liberal group, civil rights and social justice issues are at the forefront for Gen Z adults.
- Like most Americans, Gen Z is highly skeptical that people in power act responsibly and that important institutions are worthy of trust. More than older generations, Gen Z adults are not paying close attention to politics (a trend that is not atypical for younger Americans).
- For every voting-age member of Gen Z who has a very favorable opinion of President Trump, thereare more than 6 who have a very unfavorable opinion.
- Gen Z adults put slightly more faith in capitalism than millennials. Gen Z adults also have the most positive view of socialism of any generation.
- Gen Z liberals are more likely to boycott a brand for political reasons: 39 percent say they’ve done so in the past year.
- Gen Z Republicans are far more comfortable with “large government” and socialism than elder Republicans. They also hold more socially liberal views.
- Gen Z adults are far less America-centric than older adults. They are less likely to say that being an American is important to their identity, and more skeptical that the U.S. sets a good example for the rest of the world.
- The first digitally native generation has a starkly different media diet. A 49 percent plurality get their news from social media, and a majority are on YouTube daily.
- Collectively, Google and Apple’s suite of products make up 11 out of the top 25 brands that Gen Z adults are most likely to use on a daily basis.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: A GLOBAL LOOK
Among adults in 27 countries worldwide
Artificial intelligence is the simulation of human intelligence by machines, especially computer systems. How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements about artificial intelligence….
The government’s use of artificial intelligence should be restricted more strictly than it is now
Neither agree/disagree: 36%
Companies’ use of artificial intelligence technology should be regulated more strictly than it is now
Neither agree/disagree: 32%
I am worried about the use of artificial intelligence
Neither agree/disagree: 32%
Artificial intelligence should be banned altogether
Neither agree/disagree: 33%
RON’S COMMENT: From the poll report: “Adults under the age of 35 are only slightly less likely than those aged 35-49 and those 50 and older to agree with calls to further restrict the use of AI by government (38% vs. 41% and 41%, respectively) and for more regulation of its use by companies (46% vs. 50% and 50%, respectively)”….“People with lower levels of education are just as likely to worry about the use of AI in general (42% vs. 41% of those with medium levels of education and, also, 41% of those with a higher levels of education), to favor restricting government use of AI more (41% vs. 40% and 39%, respectively), and to favor further regulating businesses’ use of AI (48% vs. 49% and 49%, respectively)”….“Women are somewhat more likely to be worried by AI than are men (44% vs. 39%), but they are barely more likely than men to support more restrictions on AI use by government (41% vs. 39%) and more regulation of AI use by companies (49% vs. 47%).”
When Ross Perot ran for president in 1992, he won nearly 19% of the nationwide popular vote––the highest percentage of any third-party or independent candidate in a U.S. presidential election since 1912. Though Perot did not carry any state, he did run second in two states. What were those two states?
(See answer below)
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Morning Consult July 1-7; Emerson College, July 6-8
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: Ipsos, May 24-June 7
GEN Z: Morning Consult, May 23-26, 2019
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
Utah and Maine.
In Utah, George H.W. Bush ran first, Perot second and Bill Clinton third.
In Maine, Clinton ran first, Perot second and Bush third.
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