LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Tax Refund Surprises – Trump’s Policies – Trump vs. Generic Democrat

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, March 14, 2019

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: While individual polls have fluctuated this week, the average remains stable. Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Morning Consult, Reuters) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these three extremes, it would be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.

Among voters nationwide

If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for? 

The Democratic candidate: 49%
Donald Trump: 40%
It depends: 9%
I would not vote: 2%

RON’S COMMENT: The generic Democratic candidate is getting 88% of Democrats and 4% of Republicans. These numbers are similar to other recent polling…. It’s worth noting: 41% of independents do not pick between Trump or a Democrat, they say it depends who the Democratic nominee is or they say they won’t vote…. Also: Only 2% of Trump voters from 2016 switch to the Democratic candidate.

Among voters nationwide

How often do you support or oppose President Trump’s policies? 

  • Always support President Trump’s policies: 14%
  • Support President Trump’s policies most of the time, but oppose a few: 24%
  • 50/50 – Support or oppose President Trump’s policies about half of the time: 9%
  • Oppose President Trump’s policies most of the time, but support a few: 22%
  • Always oppose President Trump’s policies: 25%

RON’S COMMENT: 38% of voters support Trump’s policies all or most of the time. On the other side, 37% oppose his policies. Looking at independents: 36% of them support Trump’s policies all or most of the time and 34% oppose his policies. There is a big generational difference: 21% of those under 30 always or mostly support the president’s policies, while 51% of those over 65 do.

Among voters nationwide

[Asked of those who have already filed taxes and were expecting a refund] Was your refund bigger or smaller than you had expected? 

  • Refund was bigger than expected 23%
  • Refund was about what I expected 42%
  • Refund was smaller than expected 30%
  • I actually had to pay more 2%

RON’S COMMENT: People making over $100,000 a year were more likely to say their tax refund was bigger than expected compared to people with incomes below $50k (25% vs. 18%).

[Asked of those who have not yet filed their tax return] Do you think you will pay more or less under the new tax law than you would have had to pay under the old law? 

  • Pay more: 31%
  • Pay about the same: 34%
  • Pay less: 19%
  • Not sure: 17%

RON’S COMMENT: Fewer than one in five voters (19%) who have not yet filed a return expect to pay less under the new tax law.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.

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