Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, March 12, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 38% (Quinnipiac) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating…. The new Hill-HarrisX poll pegs Trump’s overall approval rating at 45%. By demographics, the poll finds that Trump’s approval rating is 47% among men, 43% among women, 52% among whites, 10% among blacks, 14% among Hispanics, 22% among Asian-Americans, 80% among Republicans, 14% among Democrats and 45% among independents.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 31%
Bernie Sanders: 27%
Kamala Harris: 10%
Beto O’Rourke: 7%
Elizabeth Warren: 7%
Cory Booker: 4%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Julian Castro: 1%
John Delaney: 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%
Pete Buttgieg: 1%
Steve Bullock: 1%
John Hickenlooper: 1%
Terry McAuliffe: 1%
Jay Inslee: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: Not much movement. Since last week’s poll, Biden and Sanders stayed the same, Harris is down 1 and O’Rourke is down 1. In the subsample of Democratic voters from early primary states (IA, NH, SC, NV), Biden leads with 33%, followed by Sanders at 29% and Harris at 9%.
RATINGS OF DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES
Among Democratic voters nationwide
% = Approve/Disapprove
Joe Biden: 76%/13%
Bernie Sanders: 70%/17%
Kamala Harris: 53%/11%
Elizabeth Warren: 49%/19%
Amy Klobuchar: 26%/13%
Cory Booker: 43%/12%
Beto O’Rourke: 38%/12%
Bill de Blasio: 18%/24%
Michael Bennet: 13%/7%
Jay Inslee: 13%/6%
Marianne Williamson: 8%/4%
Steve Bullock: 6%/6%
RON’S COMMENT: These are the latest favorability ratings of Democratic presidential possibilities among Democratic voters. As you can see, the list of candidates is not complete. But it provides a useful reading on the major candidates and some of the newer ones…. Biden’s positive rating is the highest and his negative rating is low in comparison. He and Sanders are the only two who hit or exceed the 70% favorability mark. Below them, the only candidate to hit or exceed 50% favorable is Harris. On the other hand, de Blasio has the highest negative rating and is the only possible candidate who has a negative rating higher than his positive rating among voters of his own party….Inslee, Williamson and Bullock have very little national recognition…. It should be added that O’Rourke’s positive and negative ratings have declined a bit. In January, he had 41%/19% and now he’s 38%/12%.
TRUMP ISSUE APPROVAL
Among voters nationwide
“Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling…”
% = Approve/Disapprove
The economy: 51%/44%
Veterans: 48%/41%
Terrorism: 48%/43%
Foreign policy: 46%/49%
Immigration: 46%/50%
Taxes: 45%/49%
Gun control: 44%/47%
Abortion: 42%/45%
Women’s rights: 42%/46%
Civil rights: 42%/49%
Healthcare: 42%/51%
The environment: 41%/52%
Medicare: 40%/44%
Education: 40%/46%
Social Security: 39%/45%
Gay rights: 36%/46%
The budget deficit: 35%/55%
RON’S COMMENT: Trump is net positive on the economy (+7), veterans (+7) and terrorism (+5). His worst issue is the budget deficit (-20)…. On the economy, 20% of Democrats, 49% of independents and 86% of Republicans approve of his performance.
CANADA FEDERAL ELECTION
Among voters nationwide in Canada
(Average of last three polls)
Conservative (Andrew Scheer): 35%
Liberal (Justin Trudeau): 33%
New Democratic (Jagmeet Singh): 16%
Green (Elizabeth May): 8%
Bloc Quebecois (Yves-Francois Blanchett): 4%
RON’S COMMENT: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party is running second to the Conservatives. A number of mistakes has recently hurt Trudeau’s political prospects, tarnishing his image as a “fresh-faced” leader of a new politics…. In terms of seats now held, the top three parties in the House of Commons are: Liberals 180 seats, Conservatives 97 seats and New Democrats 41 seats…. In the 2015 federal election, Trudeau’s party won nearly 40% of the vote and was followed by Conservatives with 31% and New Democrats with 20%. The next federal election is October 21.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Among voters statewide
Who has been the longest serving Republican member of Congress in history?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Morning Consult, March 3-10
PERSONAL RATINGS: Monmouth, March 1-4
TRUMP ISSUE APPROVAL: The Economist/YouGov, March 3-5
CANADA: Abacus Data/Innovative Research/Ipsos, polls completed March 4-10
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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TRIVIA ANSWER
Don Young (R-Alaska). He’s served longer in Congress than any Republican in the nation’s history, over 46 years.
Young, who still serves in the House, was first elected in 1973 following the death of then-incumbent U.S. Rep. Nick Begich (D), who disappeared in a plane crash while he was campaigning with Democratic House Majority Leader Hale Boggs of Louisiana.
Ranking as the second longest serving Republican member of Congress is current U.S. Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner of Wisconsin, clocking in at over 40 years of service.
It should be mentioned that Strom Thurmond of South Carolina served a year longer in Congress than Young has so far. But, Thurmond was first elected to the Senate as a Democrat in 1954 and didn’t become a Republican until 1964. He served until 2003.
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