LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Arizona Senate – Oscar Picks – Candidate Ratings

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, February 22, 2019

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today, which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.

ARIZONA: PRESIDENT
Among voters statewide

Joe Biden (D) and Donald Trump (R): even (46-46)
Donald Trump (R) over Kamala Harris (D): +9 (49-40)
Donald Trump (R) over Elizabeth Warren (D): +11 (49-38)
Donald Trump (R) over Bernie Sanders (I/D): +12 (49-37)

RON’S COMMENT: Polls like this underscore the perception that Biden is the candidate most likely to beat Trump in the general election. He’s tying Trump in a state that Trump carried by nearly 4 points in 2016, while other Democrats are losing by clear margins…. Trump’s Arizona job approval in this poll is 52%, which is much better than his national rating.

ARIZONA: SENATE
Among voters statewide

Sen. Martha McSally (R) over Mark Kelly (D): +2 (46-44)

RON’S COMMENT: Republican McSally lost a Senate bid last year by 2 points, but was subsequently appointed to fill the state’s other Senate seat, John McCain’s vacancy, which is up in 2020. This poll shows her with a thin lead over astronaut Democrat Kelly, husband of former U.S. Rep. Gabby Giffords (D)…. Independents: In the survey, Kelly wins women independents by 9 points and loses male independents by 9 points. Kelly wins Maricopa 49-41 and Pima 48-46. McSally wins rural counties 56-31…. McSally vs.Gallego: This poll also shows McSally leading U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) by a wider 49-41 margin…. See Kelly’s campaign video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfY-7meWW1Y

PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE RATINGS
Among voters nationwide

% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Howard Schultz: 14%/37%
Cory Booker: 33%/37%
Pete Buttigieg: 14%/14%
Julian Castro: 23%/28%
Tulsi Gabbard: 16%/28%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 27%/33%
Kamala Harris: 37%/37%
Amy Klobuchar: 26%/28%
Bernie Sanders: 42%/49%
Elizabeth Warren: 39%/46%

RON’S COMMENT: Every announced presidential candidate on this list, except Buttigieg, has a net negative rating among all voters nationwide. And, Buttigieg, the least known, is even…. Independent contender Schultz has had an especially inauspicious beginning to his campaign. Among independents­­––voters he should appeal to––he’s more than two to one negative, 13%/28%…. Among only Democrats: Sanders is 71%/19%, Warren 64%/17%, Harris 61%/10%, Klobuchar 42%/10% and Booker 57%/10%.

ACADEMY AWARDS
Among adults nationwide

Which movie do you want to win the Academy Award for Best Picture? 

Bohemian Rhapsody: 25%
Black Panther: 23%
A Star is Born: 22%
Green Book: 8%
Vice: 6%
The Favourite: 6%
BlacKkKlansman: 5%
Roma: 5%

RON’S COMMENT: There is a three-way race for the Oscar favorite: Bohemian Rhapsody does best with 45-64 year-olds (32%), whites (31%) and Republicans (29%)…. Black Panther does best with 18-29 year-olds (31%), Democrats (36%) and blacks (53%)…. A Star is Born does best with Republicans (33%) and people over 65 years old (28%).

SOURCES
ARIZONA: OH Predictive Insights, Feb. 12-13
ACADEMY AWARDS, CANDIDATE POPULARITY: The Economist/YouGov, Feb. 17-19

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When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

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