LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Rating Harris at Home – California – New Jersey – Early Primary Trial Heat

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, February 13, 2019

Up 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: As we get new polls, it shows President Trump’s approval rating rising in the aftermath of the SOTU address. Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 42% (The Economist) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 45%….Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today, which is 6 points higher than his approval rating.

Among Democratic voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada

Joe Biden: 29%
Bernie Sanders: 22%
Kamala Harris: 13%
Elizabeth Warren: 8%
Beto O’Rourke: 7%
Cory Booker: 5%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Michael Bloomberg: 2%
Sherrod Brown: 2%

RON’S COMMENT: This poll was conducted among Democratic voters in the early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada…. It also shows that if Biden doesn’t run, 27% of his votes go to Sanders, 15% go to Harris and 9% go to Warren. If Sanders doesn’t run, 26% of his votes go to Biden, 16% go to Warren and 7% go to Harris.

Among voters statewide

Job Ratings

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D)
Approve: 39%
Disapprove: 28%
Don’t know: 33%

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D)
Approve: 51%
Disapprove: 38%
Don’t know: 11%

Sen. Kamala Harris (D)
Approve: 53%
Disapprove: 32%
Don’t know: 16%

Pres. Donald Trump (R)
Approve: 28%
Disapprove: 67%
Don’t know: 4%

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D)
Approve: 55%
Disapprove: 37%
Don’t know: 8%

RON’S COMMENT: Among all voters in California: Speaker Pelosi and Senators Harris and Feinstein all have job approval ratings in their home state of over 50%…. Gov. Newsom just took office last month and a third of the state’s voters do not yet rate him. His 39% approval rating is far below the 62% of the vote he won last year…. Trump’s ratings have always been awful in California…. Among only Democrats in California: Pelosi’s rating is 86% approve/6% disapprove and Harris, who is a presidential candidate, is 80% approve/7% disapprove. Home state support is critical to Harris’ prospects for the presidential nomination––California will have a gigantic amount of delegates at the 2020 Democratic national convention.

MarijuanaDo you believe legalizing recreational marijuana has been good or bad for California?

Good: 54%
Bad: 31%

RON’S COMMENT: 33% of Republicans, 61% of Democrats, 58% of independents, 59% of men, 49% of women, 70% of 18-34 year-olds and 38% of voters 65 or older believe legalizing recreational marijuana has been good for California.

Harris for president?
Do you think Kamala Harris would make a good president, or not?

Yes, good president: 68%
No: 12%
Don’t know: 20%

RON’S COMMENT: More than two-thirds of California Democrats say their Sen. Harris would make a good president.

Among voters statewide

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Phil Murphy is doing as governor?

Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 40%

RON’S COMMENT: Democrat Murphy was elected governor in 2017.

In your opinion, what are the most important one or two issues facing the state of New Jersey right now? 

(Top four issues)
Property taxes: 45%
Economy/cost of living: 16%
Jobs: 11%
Transportation/infrastructure: 10%

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NEW JERSEY: Monmouth University, Feb. 8-10
CALIFORNIA POLITICS: Quinnipiac, Jan. 30-Feb. 4

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