LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Northam in Virginia – Tax Law Seen as Good for Wealthy – Trump’s Change

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, February 11, 2019

Up 2 from Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls––and it gives us a fuller picture of President Trump’s SOTU bounce…. The range today is 38% (Reuters) to 52% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 45%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 8 points higher than his approval…. The Hill/HarrisX poll shows Trump’s approval rating increased 3 points since the speech (44% to 47%).

Among voters statewide

Gov. Ralph Northam job rating:
Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 45%

RON’S COMMENT: Democrat Northam’s job rating in Virginia is about evenly split. By demos: 38% of whites, 58% of blacks, 66% of Democrats, 17% of Republicans and 39% of independents approve of his job performance.

As you may know, this past week there has been news about Northam’s yearbook page from medical school in 1984. His page shows a photo of a person in blackface next to a person in a white KKK robe with a hood. How much have you seen or heard about this — a lot, some, only a little, or nothing at all?

A lot/some: 89%
A little/nothing: 11%

RON’S COMMENT: It’s no surprise that most Virginia voters have heard about this.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Northam has responded to the photo’s discovery?

Approve: 21%
Disapprove: 72%

RON’S COMMENT: Voters are not happy with the way Northam has handled the matter and, based on data from another question, do not find his explanation believable.

Were you offended by the photo that appeared on Northam’s yearbook page, or were you NOT offended by the photo? 

Offended: 58%
Not offended: 39%

RON’S COMMENT: A majority say they’re offended by the photo in Northam’s yearbook. This poll also finds that 10% of the state’s voters say they’ve worn blackface or know someone who has.

Do you think the Northam’s yearbook photo is an isolated incident or is it a sign of broader racial prejudice in his life?

Isolated incident: 50%
Broader racial prejudice: 34%

RON’S COMMENT: 48% of blacks say it’s an isolated incident, while 54% of whites do.

Considering everything, do you think Northam should step down as Governor of Virginia, or not?

Should step down: 48%
Should not step down: 46%

RON’S COMMENT: Voters in Virginia are closely split on whether Northam should resign…. 48% of whites, 37% of blacks, 40% of Democrats, 56% of Republicans and 47% of independents say he should step down.

Separately, Virginia Attorney General Mark Herring admitted that he wore blackface and dressed as a rapper at a party in 1980, when he was in college. Herring apologized and called his actions insensitive. Do you think Herring should step down as Attorney General, or not?

Should step down: 34%
Should not step down: 60%

If Northam steps down, Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax would become governor. How much confidence, if at all, do you have that Fairfax would govern effectively – a great deal of confidence, a good amount, just some, or none at all?

Great/good amount of confidence: 25%
Just some of confidence/not at all: 62%

Among adults nationwide

Do you think that Donald Trump’s presidency has or has not created significant changes in the country? Do you think the country has changed for the better or changed for the worse? 

Yes, has created changes: 76%

  • Changed for the better: 33%
  • Changed for the worse: 37%

No, has not created changes: 21%

RON’S COMMENT:  3% of Democrats, 35% of independents and 70% of Republicans say Trump’s presidency has created significant changes for the better.

2017 TAX LAW
Among adults nationwide

Overall, do you think the tax reforms signed into law in 2017 will do more to benefit the middle class or do more to benefit the wealthy? 

Will do more to benefit the middle class: 33%
Will do more to benefit the wealthy: 53%
Benefits both equally: 5%

RON’S COMMENT: 81% of Democrats, 54% of independents and 18% of Republicans say the tax law will do more to benefit the wealthy. With numbers like these, expect Democratic presidential candidates to hammer this issue.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
VIRGINIA: Washington Post-Schar School, Feb. 6-8
TRUMP AND CHANGE, 2017 TAX LAW: CNN, Jan. 30-Feb. 2

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