Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, February 5, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 39% (IBD/TIPP) to 45% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 42%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today, which is 13 points higher than his approval rating.
PRESIDENT: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
National trial heat among Democrats
Joe Biden: 29%
Bernie Sanders: 16%
Kamala Harris: 11%
Elizabeth Warren: 8%
Beto O’Rourke: 7%
Mike Bloomberg: 4%
Cory Booker: 4%
Sherrod Brown: 1%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Julian Castro: 1%
Eric Holder: 1%
John Hickenlooper: 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1%
Andrew Yang: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: As all polls are showing, Biden leads the Democratic field. In this poll, Sanders is second and Harris is third. In this poll, Biden wins 39% of the moderate wing of the party and 18% of the left wing. Sanders pulls 9% of the moderate wing and 23% of the left. Harris draws 9% of the moderates and 12% of the left. Warren pulls 5% of moderates and 11% of the left…. Biden gets 35% of men and 26% of women. Harris gets 5% of men and 14% of women.
Favorability of candidates among Democrats
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Joe Biden: 80%/9%
Bernie Sanders: 68%/19%
Kamala Harris: 46%/13%
Beto O’Rourke: 41%/9%
Elizabeth Warren: 57%/17%
Cory Booker: 44%/11%
Michael Bloomberg: 35%/25%
Julian Castro: 24%/9%
Sherrod Brown: 19%/8%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 28%/12%
Tulsi Gabbard: 21%/9%
RON’S COMMENT: All of these active and potential candidates have net positive ratings among fellow Democrats, but Biden’s is by far the best.
Which type of candidate would you prefer if you had to make a choice between: a Democrat you agree with on most issues but would have a hard time beating Donald Trump or a Democrat you do NOT agree with on most issues but would be a stronger candidate against Donald Trump?
Agrees with candidate, but hard time beating Trump: 33%
Do not agree with candidate, but stronger against Trump: 56%
[VOLUNTEERED] Rejects choice: 2%
[VOLUNTEERED] Don’t Know: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: A majority of Democrats would rather have an electable nominee than a more agreeable one. If that holds up, then general election polling becomes an important factor.
When was the longest period between incumbent re-elections in U.S. presidential history?
(See answer below)
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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENT: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Monmouth, Jan. 25-27
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
Between Andrew Jackson’s re-election in 1832 (7th president) and Abraham Lincoln’s re-election in 1864 (16th president), no incumbent was re-elected.
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