LUNCHTIME POLITICS: British Views on Leaders, Brexit, US – Fixing Government – Shutdown Blame Game

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, January 28, 2019

Up 1 from Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on nine polls, ranging from 38% (ABC/WaPo) to 45% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 42%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today, which is 13 points higher than his approval rating…. Based on the Fox News poll, Trump’s approval rating among demographic groups is: 45% men, 41% women, whites 51%, nonwhites 21%, under 45 years old 37%, 45 or older 48%, Democrats 9%, Republicans 83% and independents 34%.

Among U.S. adults nationwide

Do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel they’re headed on the wrong track?

Right direction: 28%
Wrong track: 63%

RON’S COMMENT: Two years ago, in February 2017, 40% of Americans in this poll said the US was going in the right direction. That’s fallen 12 points since then. It’s even fallen 5 points since this past December. Fallout from the shutdown?

Among voters nationwide

The federal government has been partially shut down because Trump and the Republicans in Congress and Pelosi and the Democrats in Congress cannot agree on laws about border security. Who do you think is mainly responsible?

Trump and the Republicans in Congress: 53%
Pelosi and the Democrats in Congress: 35%
Both equally: 9%

RON’S COMMENT: This poll was taken before the temporary shutdown deal. It shows Trump and Republicans taking the bulk of the hit. Among only independents, 54% blamed the GOP and 29% blamed Democrats.

Among voters nationwide

In general, which comes closer to your view of government in Washington, D.C….

  • We need to keep shaking things up and make major differences in the way government operates: 48%
  • We need more competence: 45%

RON’S COMMENT: While this is an interesting result, this poll’s question is worth challenging. It sets up a false choice between change and competence. Isn’t it possible that many Americans would like to shake things up precisely because they want to make government operate more competently?

Among voters in the UK

Approval of handling Brexit: How much do you approve or disapprove the performance of the following people with respect to their work in discussions and negotiations around Brexit?

Theresa May 
Approve: 21%
Neither approve/disapprove: 20%
Disapprove: 52%

Jeremy Corbyn 
Approve: 24%
Neither approve/disapprove: 21%
Disapprove: 43%

RON’S COMMENT: Prime Minister May’s approval rating on handling Brexit among fellow Conservatives is 41% approve/20% neither approve nor disapprove/37% disapprove. Among Labour Party supporters, she’s 12% approve/10% neither approve nor disapprove/69% disapprove…. Labour leader Corbyn’s approval rating on Brexit among Conservatives is 3% approve/5% neither approve nor disapprove/65% disapprove. Among fellow Labour Party supporters, he’s 46% approve/19% neither approve nor disapprove/31% disapprove.

Second Brexit referendum: Would you support or oppose a second referendum on whether the UK should leave the European Union? 

Would support: 49%
Would not support: 41%

RON’S COMMENT: 25% of Conservativesand 62% of Labour supporters want a new Brexit referendum.

If a second referendum were to be held on whether the UK should leave the European Union, which way would you be most likely to vote? 

Leave the EU: 47%
Remain in the EU: 53%

RON’S COMMENT: 61% of Labour supporters and 32% of Conservatives would vote this time to remain in the EU.

Confidence in Parliament: How confident are you that the UK parliament can solve the most urgent problems facing the country? 

Confident: 26%
Not confident: 68%

RON’S COMMENT: 17% of Labour supporters and 43% of Conservatives are confident.

Comparing US to UK: Which of the following statements comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right? 

The current political situation in the UK is more chaotic than the political situation in the United States: 44%
The current political situation in the United States is more chaotic than the political situation in the UK: 35%
Don’t know: 21%

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
SHUTDOWN BLAME: Washington Post/ABC, Jan. 21-24
BRITISH VIEWS: Morning Consult, Jan. 23-24

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