LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Polling on the Shutdown, Immigration, the Wall

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, January 9, 2019

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on three polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters/Ipsos) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 9 points higher than his approval rating…. Note that these polls were conducted before the president’s speech last night.

Among voters nationwide

How much do you blame each of the groups listed below for causing the shutdown of the federal government? 

Democrats in Congress
A lot: 46%
A little: 18%
Not at all: 31%

Republicans in Congress
A lot: 46%
A little: 37%
Not at all: 12%

President Trump
A lot: 59%
A little: 15%
Not at all: 23%

RON’S COMMENT: Trump is getting more of the blame than either party in Congress. Nearly three out of five voters blame the president “a lot” for the shutdown.

If you had to choose, which approach would you prefer that members of Congress take when negotiating a federal budget agreement? 

  • Lawmakers should compromise to reach a budget agreement, even if it means sacrificing some priorities that they believe in: 69%
  • Lawmakers should fight for the priorities that they believe in, even if it means risking a government shutdown: 31%

RON’S COMMENT: Voters strongly support compromise. While majorities from both parties favor compromise, Democrats do more so than Republicans (76% vs. 59%).

How much sympathy do you have for federal government employees who have been furloughed or are working without pay? 

A great deal: 50%
Some: 25%
Not much/None at all: 22%

RON’S COMMENT: Democrats much more so than Republicans say they have “a great deal” of sympathy for federal employees (68% vs. 22%).

How much longer do you think the government shutdown will last? 

Only a day or two: 1%
More than a day or two, but less than one week: 7%
More than 6 days, but less than two weeks: 17%
More than 14 days, but less than a month: 23%
One month more or longer: 22%

Among voters nationwide

Do you think the federal government should increase or decrease the level of LEGAL immigration into the United States, or leave the level the same? 

Increase LEGAL immigration: 30%
Decrease LEGAL immigration: 25%
Not change the level of LEGAL immigration: 35%

RON’S COMMENT: 15% of Democrats AND 40% of Republicans want to decrease LEGAL immigration.

How serious a problem is ILLEGAL immigration in the U.S. as a whole? 

Very serious: 40%
Somewhat serious: 21%
A minor problem: 26%
Not a problem: 11%

RON’S COMMENT: 12% of Democrats, 33% of independents and 65% of Republicans say illegal immigration is a “very serious” problem.

How serious a problem is ILLEGAL immigration in your LOCAL community? 

Very serious: 15%
Somewhat serious: 18%
A minor problem: 27%
Not a problem: 31%

RON’S COMMENT: While 61% of voters say ILLEGAL immigration is a “very” or “somewhat” serious problem for the nation as a whole, only 33% say it is in their local community.

Do you favor or oppose building a wall along the US-Mexico border to try to stop illegal immigration? 

Favor: 44%
Oppose: 48%
Not sure: 7%

RON’S COMMENT: Voters are fairly closely split on the wall. By party: 12% of Democrats, 34% of independents and 80% of Republicans favor the border wall with Mexico.

When it comes to border security, which party do you trust most? 

Republican party: 35%
Democratic party: 32%
Both equally: 5%
Neither: 24%

RON’S COMMENT: Voters trust Republicans slightly more than Democrats on border security. Interestingly, nearly one-fourth of the electorate trusts neither party.

When it comes to immigration reform, which party do you trust most? 

Republican party: 32%
Democratic party: 39%
Both equally: 3%
Neither: 22%

RON’S COMMENT: However, voters trust Democrats a bit more than Republicans when the issue is immigration reform.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
IMMIGRATION, SHUTDOWN: The Economist/YouGov, Jan. 6-8

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