Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, January 8, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on three polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters) to 46% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
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MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE
Among voters nationwide
Which of these is the most important issue for you?
Social Security: 14%
The economy: 11%
The environment: 10%
Gun control: 4%
The budget deficit: 3%
Gay rights: 2%
The war in Afghanistan: 1%
Foreign policy: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: Amazing that, when combined, terrorism, the war in Afghanistan and foreign policy rate only 7%…. Among men, the top issues are healthcare (14%) and immigration (14%)…. Among women, the top issues are healthcare (21%) and Social Security (16%)…. Democrats say healthcare (21%) and Social Security (16%)…. Republicans say immigration (26%) is the top issue, and nothing else comes close…. Independents say healthcare (19%), Social Security (12%), the economy (12%) and immigration (12%).
Among voters nationwide
Please indicate if you have a favorable or unfavorable view of that person or group – or if you’ve never heard of them.
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
U.S. military: 84%/9%
U.S. Supreme Court: 62%/23%
Barack Obama: 59%/35%
Joe Biden: 54%/31%
Bernie Sanders: 49%/37%
Mike Pence: 39%/43%
Hillary Clinton: 38%/55%
RON’S COMMENT: Obama, Biden and Sanders have net positive ratings. Hillary Clinton and Pence are net negative.
STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK
Among adults nationwide
Do you think the stock market will be higher or lower 12 months from now?
About the same: 24%
Not sure: 24%
RON’S COMMENT: Democrats say 10% higher/45% lower. Republicans say 47% higher/11% lower. People with incomes above $100k say 31% higher/35% lower.
MACRON IN FRANCE
Among voters in France
President Emmanuel Macron Job Rating:
31% Approve/69% Disapprove
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows Macron’s rating still in the dumps, but it has improved a little over the past weeks. The three previous polls had his approval rating at 26%, on average.
UK PARTY POLITICS/BREXIT VOTE
Among voters in Great Britain
Political Party Preference
Lib Dems: 6%
RON’S COMMENT: The Conservative Party of Prime Minister Theresa May has a gained a wider lead over the Labour Party in the latest poll. These two parties have been running neck-and-neck for a while now…. Brexit turnaround: When the poll asked about Brexit, 46% of voters say they would now vote to remain in the EU and 39% would vote to leave. In the 2016 referendum, 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to stay.
Which Republican U.S. Senator won re-election last year with the highest percentage of the vote?
(See answer below)
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
POPULARITY RATINGS: Harvard-Harris, Dec. 24-25
STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK, MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE: The Economist/YouGov Poll, Dec. 30-Jan. 1
UK: YouGov/People’s Vote, Dec. 21-Jan. 4
MACRON: Harris, Dec. 25-31
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY). He won re-election last year with 67% of the vote, the best of any GOP Senate incumbent.
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