Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, January 4, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters/Ipsos) to 46% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today, which is 10 points higher than his approval rating…. Note: Trump’s average negative rating, at 54%, is the same as the percentage of the national votes cast against him in the 2016 election. In 2016, he received 46% of the vote.
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TRUMP’S RATINGS ON THE ISSUES
Among voters nationwide
% = Approve/Disapprove
Abortion: 33%/44%
Budget deficit: 35%/56%
Civil rights: 39%/47%
Economy: 47%/46%
Education: 37%/49%
Environment: 38%/51%
Foreign policy: 42%/51%
Gay rights: 30%/44%
Gun control: 41%/48%
Healthcare: 40%/53%
Immigration: 47%/49%
Medicare: 36%/48%
Social Security: 37%/45%
Taxes: 44%/48%
Terrorism: 46%/43%
Veterans 47%/42%
Women’s rights: 37%/48%
RON’S COMMENT: For starters, it should be noted that the poll that produced these results has Trump’s overall job approval rating at 45%, to provide a benchmark as we look at his rating on each issue…. Trump’s approval rating is highest on the economy (47%), immigration (47%) and veterans (47%). His disapproval rating is highest on the budget deficit (56%), healthcare (53%), the environment (51%) and foreign policy (51%)…. For Trump to get serious mileage out of the economy as a re-election issue, he needs to do well among independents––but, his rating among this key voter group on the economy leans slightly negative: 38% approve/42% disapprove…. While 44% of whites approve of Trump on civil rights, only 14% of blacks and 33% of Hispanics do…. For a president who was elected with the votes of people over 65 years old––he beat Hillary Clinton 52-45 among this constituency––his job ratings among older voters on Medicare and Social Security are lackluster. He is slightly negative on Medicare (43% approve/46% approve) and slightly positive on Social Security (45% approve/41% approve).
TRUMP’S TRAITS
Among voters nationwide
How much do you think Donald Trump cares about the needs and problems of people like you?
A lot/some: 42%
Not at all/not much: 54%
RON’S COMMENT: 8% of Democrats, 33% of independents, 83% of Republicans say Trump cares “a lot” or “some” about the needs and problems of people like them.
Would you say Donald Trump is a strong or a weak leader?
Strong leader: 47%
Weak leader: 52%
Do you think Donald Trump is honest and trustworthy, or not?
Honest and trustworthy: 34%
Not honest and trustworthy: 54%
RON’S COMMENT: 12% of Republicans and 49% of independents say Trump is not honest and trustworthy.
PARTIES IN CONGRESS
Among voters nationwide
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the following groups in Congress?
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Democrats in Congress: 40%/53%
Republicans in Congress: 31%/63%
RON’S COMMENT: Independents view both parties negatively. Independents rate Democrats in Congress 20% favorable/54% unfavorable and Republicans in Congress 17% favorable/57% unfavorable…. It should be noted that a substantial portion (39%) of Trump voters rate Republicans in Congress negatively.
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES IN U.S. HOUSE
New Congress vs. the last Congress
Changes among Democrats in the House:
Women +28 members
Blacks: +8 members
Latinos: +6 members
LGBTQ: +2 members
Changes among Republicans in the House:
Women -10 members
Blacks: -1 member
Latinos: -2 members
LGBTQ: 0 members
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TRUMP’S TRAITS, TRUMP’S RATING ON THE ISSUES, PARTIES IN CONGRESS: The Economist/You Gov, Dec. 30-Jan. 1
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