Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, November 9, 2018
2018 ELECTION ANALYSIS
Based on nationwide exit polling data
Gender
- Women made up slightly more of the national electorate this year than in the last midterm election. Women were 51% of the national electorate in the 2014 midterm election and 52% in the 2018 midterm election. Women were 53% of the electorate in the 2016 presidential election.
- Democrats increased their margin among women this year. In 2014, Democrats won women by only 4 points (51-47). In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton won women by 13 points (54-41). In 2018, Democrats won women by 19 points (59-40).
- Minority women provided Democrats their margin of victory among women: While white women split their votes evenly among Democrats and Republicans this year, Democrats won black women 92-7, Latino women 73-26 and other nonwhite women 66-32.
- Since 2014, the best Democrats have done among white women has been a tie, and that was this year. Republicans won white women by 14 points (56-42) in 2014, Donald Trump won white women by 9 points (52-43) in 2016 and in 2018 white women split 49-49.
Age
- Voters under 30: The 18-29-year-old age cohort made up 13% of the electorate in the 2014 midterms, 19% in the 2016 presidential election and 13% in the 2018 midterms.
- Growing Democratic strength among the youngest voters accelerated this year: The 18-29-year-old age cohort voted Democratic by 11 points in 2014, 19 points in 2016 and a thumping 35 points in 2018.
- What’s especially interesting about 2018 data is that the partisan generational divide is no longer at the 30-year-old line, as we’ve generally assumed. It’s now moved up to the 45-year old line. Voters 18-44 voted Democratic this year by a wide 61-36 margin. Voters 45 and older split nearly evenly between the two parties.
- Republicans need to make inroads into the 30-44 age cohort in addition to the 18-29 cohort. Here’s why it matters: 18-44 year olds made up 35% of the electorate this year and 44% in the last presidential election. When Republicans lose this much of the electorate by a whopping 25 points, as they did this year, that puts them into a deep hole when trying to win a majority of all voters.
Race
- Whites: The white proportion of the national electorate went down from 75% in the 2014 midterms to 72% in the 2018 midterms. The white vote made up 71% in the 2016 presidential election.
- Blacks: The black proportion of the electorate went from 12% in 2014 and 2016 to 11% in 2018.
- Latinos: The Latino proportion of the electorate went from 8% in 2014 to 11% in 2016 and 2018.
- Asians: The Asian proportion of the electorate went from 3% in 2014 to 4% in 2016 to 3% in 2018.
- The Republican margin among white voters was cut in half since 2016: In the 2016 presidential election, whites voted for Donald Trump by 20 points (57-37). In the 2018 midterms, whites voted Republican by 10 points (54-44).
- Democrats improved their standing among Hispanic voters by 3 points since 2016: In the 2016 presidential election, Hispanics voted for Hillary Clinton 66-28. In the 2018 midterms, Hispanics voted Democratic 69-29.
- Democrats improved their standing among black voters by 1 point since 2016: In the 2016 presidential election, blacks voted for Hillary Clinton 89-12. In the 2018 midterms, blacks voted Democratic 90-9.
SOURCES
2018 ELECTION ANALYSIS: Exit polling data from 2014, 2016, 2018
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