Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, November 1, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (NPR/Marist) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.
ELECTIONS: 2018
Among voters in each state and district
NOTE: As we get into the final days before the election, we are altering our format to give you a quicker read, including hot-off-the-press numbers plus our average of all recent polls along with comments. Also keep in mind: When a candidate’s lead is higher in today’s polls than it is in our average of all recent polls, that means he or she is moving up.
SENATE
RON’S COMMENT: Arizona polling is all over the place. When that happens, look at the average, which has Democrat Sinema up by a narrow 1.2 points…. In Florida, Democrat Nelson’s average lead is now down to 1.8 points. A week and a half ago, he was averaging a lead of 6.3 points…. In Texas, Cruz’s lead has been bouncing around some. One recent poll had him +10, and the two polls today have him at +3-4 points. Before we proclaim a trend toward O’Rourke, let’s wait for more polls. Cruz now averages +5.5…. Is Tennessee done for the Democrats? Sure looks that way…. Nevada polling had been showing Heller ahead, but this new poll has Democrat Rosen up narrowly. Can’t tell yet if something’s happening…. Democrat Manchin’s margin in West Virginia has been sliced to 5 points. Is Trump working his magic? If it can work anywhere, it’s West Virginia…. A poll from Missouri has it even today. That’s actually good news for Democratic incumbent McCaskill, who has been narrowly trailing in our average….Indiana still seems oddly fluid, although Democratic incumbent Donnelly tops the most recent polls.
FLORIDA (St. Pete): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) over Rick Scott (R): +2 (49-47)
FLORIDA (Trafalgar-R): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) over Rick Scott (R): +2 (49-47)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Nelson (D) +1.8
ARIZONA (ABC15/OPI): Martha McSally (R) over Kyrsten Sinema (D): +7 (52-45)
ARIZONA (Fox News): Kyrsten Sinema (D) and Martha McSally (R): even (46-46)
ARIZONA (CNN): Kyrsten Sinema (D) over Martha McSally (R): +4 (51-47)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Sinema (D) +1.2
WEST VIRGINIA (MetroNews): Sen. Joe Manchin (D) over Patrick Morrisey (R): +5 (45-40)
WEST VIRGINIA (Emerson): Sen. Joe Manchin (D) over Patrick Morrisey (R): +5 (47-42)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Manchin (D) +5
NEVADA (CNN): Jacky Rosen (D) over Sen. Dean Heller (R): +3 (48-45)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Heller (R) +2
MISSOURI (Fox News): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) and Josh Hawley (R): even (43-43)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Hawley (R) +2
INDIANA (NBC): Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) over Mike Braun (R): +3 (45-42-7)
INDIANA (Fox News): Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) over Mike Braun (R): +7 (45-38-5)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Donnelly (D) +2.3
TEXAS (Emerson): Sen. Ted Cruz (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +3 (50-47)
TEXAS (UT Tyler): Sen. Ted Cruz (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +4 (47-43)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Cruz (R) +5.5
TENNESSEE (Emerson): Marsha Blackburn (R) over Phil Bredesen (D): +8 (52-44)
TENNESSEE (Fox News): Marsha Blackburn (R) over Phil Bredesen (D): +9 (50-41)
TENNESSEE (Cygnal): Marsha Blackburn (R) over Phil Bredesen (D): +6 (51-45)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Blackburn (R) +7
MICHIGAN (Gravis): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) over John James (R): +13 (54-41)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Stabenow (D) +11.3
WISCONSIN (Marquette): Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) over Leah Vukmir (R): +11 (54-43)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Baldwin (D) +11
PENNSYLVANIA (F&M): Sen. Bob Casey (D) over Lou Barletta (R): +15 (50-35)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Casey (D) +15
GOVERNOR
RON’S COMMENT: While his position is fluctuating today between even and +6, Democrat Gillum still averages a lead in Florida…. GOP incumbent Abbott in Texas had been coasting along, and then today comes an Emerson College poll showing his lead has slipped into single digits. Outlier or trend? Watch the average, which has him +16…. In Wisconsin, Walker is even today…. Alaska has become a fascinating race. Republican Dunleavy had a big lead in the three-way race, but then the incumbent governor, an independent, withdrew. And now there’s a close two-way contest in this normally red state…. Today’s poll from Nevada shows the lead has shifted again, now to Democrat Sisolak. Republican Laxalt, however, holds a lead in our average…. Democrat Polis has a stable lead in Colorado.
FLORIDA (Trafalgar-R): Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +2 (48-46)
FLORIDA (Reuters/UVA): Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +6 (50-44)
FLORIDA (Cygnal): Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): even (47-47)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Gillum (D) +2.8
COLORADO (Magellan-R): Jared Polis (D) over Walker Stapleton (R): +5 (45-40)
COLORADO (OnSIght/Keating-D): Jared Polis (D) over Walker Stapleton (R): +8 (50-42)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Polis (D) +6.5
TEXAS (Emerson): Gov. Greg Abbott (R) over Lupe Valdez (D): +8 (51-43)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Abbott (R) +16
WISCONSIN (Marquette): Tony Evers (D) and Gov. Scott Walker (R): even (47-47)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: even
OREGON (Hoffman-R): Gov. Kate Brown (D) over Knute Buehler (R): +3 (45-42)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Brown (D) +4.5
ALASKA (ASR): Mike Dunleavy (R) over Mark Begich (D) +1 (43-42)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Dunleavy (R) +2.5
NEVADA (CNN): Steve Sisolak (D) over Adam Laxalt (R): +1 (46-45-2)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Laxalt (R) +1.5
PENNSYLVANIA (F&M): Gov. Tom Wolf (D) over Scott Wagner (R): +26 (59-33)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Wolf (D) +26
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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