Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, October 30, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 40% (Gallup) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
ELECTIONS: 2018
Among voters in each state and district
SENATE
TEXAS: Sen. Ted Cruz (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +5 (51-46)
FLORIDA (UNF): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) over Rick Scott (R): +1 (47-46)
FLORIDA (USA Today): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) over Rick Scott (R): +2 (45-43)
OHIO: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) over Jim Renacci (R): +6 (49-43)
ARIZONA: Kyrsten Sinema (D) over Martha McSally (R): +6 (50-44)
MONTANA: Sen. Jon Tester (D) over Matt Rosendale (R): +3 (48-45)
MASSACHUSETTS: Elizabeth Warren (D) over Geoff Diehl (R): +22 (56-34)
CONNECTICUT: Sen. Chris Murphy (D) over Matthew Corey (R): +15 (56-41)
RON’S COMMENT:
Florida stays tight, with Nelson hanging on to a slim lead….The Ohio poll is good news for Republicans. Brown’s average lead in the two previous polls was 15.5 points. This new one has his lead at only 6 points. Outlier or trend?…. The Arizona poll is good news for Democrats, a 6-point lead is the best Sinema has posted since mid-September…. In Montana, any poll that shows Tester ahead is good news for Democrats, although his margin is dangerously small.
TEXAS––Two weeks ago, Cruz was averaging a lead of 7.5 points. Now his lead averages 5.5 points. O’Rourke leads independents by 4 points, women by 7 points, blacks 86-12 and Hispanics 60-36. Cruz wins men by 17 points and whites 67-30. Cruz’s best constituency is white men without college degrees. He wins them 73-23…. Each Texas Senate candidate is winning nearly 100% of voters from their party. (Note to political scientists: You finally have the “more responsible” two-party system you’ve wanted since 1950.)
GOVERNOR
FLORIDA: Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +6 (49-43)
OHIO: Richard Cordray (D) over Mike DeWine (R): +3 (49-46)
CONNECTICUT: Ned Lamont (D) over Bob Stefanowski (R): +4 (47-43)
KANSAS: Kris Kobach (R) over Laura Kelly (D): +1 (44-43-8)
OREGON: Gov. Kate Brown (D) over Knute Buehler (R): +5 (47-42)
RHODE ISLAND: Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) over Allan Fung (R): +11 (45-34-9-4)
ARIZONA: Gov. Doug Ducey (R) over David Garcia (D): +13 (55-42)
CALIFORNIA: Gavin Newsom (D) overJohn Cox (R): +20 (55-35)
MASSACHUSETTS: Gov. Charlie Baker (R)over Jay Gonzalez (D): +39 (65-26)
RON’S COMMENT: Gillum’s lead is good news for Democrats in Florida, as is Cordray’s in Ohio…. Connecticut is good news for Republicans, indicating a tightening race. The same poll that had Lamont ahead by 16 points in September now shows his lead down to 4 points. One to watch…. Kansas sits on the razor’s edge, which gives Democrats hope they can ultimately score an upset…. Oregon is still close, with incumbent Brown holding an advantage…. Newsom in California and Baker in Massachusetts are posting wide leads…. In Rhode Island, Raimondo’s 7-point margin in September has expanded to 11 points now. Fung’s standing has been weakened by tough attack ads that have driven up his negatives.
HOUSE
CALIFORNIA 25: Rep. Steve Knight (R) over Katie Hill (D): +4 (48-44)
PENNSYLVANIA 1: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) over Scott Wallace (D): +1 (47-46)
PENNSYLVANIA 10: Rep. Scott Perry (R)over George Scott (D): +3 (49-46)
UTAH 4 (NYT/Siena): Rep. Mia Love (R) and Ben McAdams (D): even (45-45)
UTAH 4 (KUTV): Ben McAdams (D) over Rep. Mia Love (R): +7(50-43)
RON’S COMMENT: Four GOP incumbents are tested today. Three are leading by modest to narrow margins and the fourth race, in Utah, is unclear based on conflicting polls.
CALIFORNIA 25––Five weeks ago, GOP incumbent Knight was trailing by 4 points in a UC/Berkeley poll. Now, he’s leading by 4 points. Democrat Hill runs a nonprofit for the homeless and Knight is a former police officer. The district is north of L.A. Though Romney won it by 2 points in 2012, Clinton beat Trump there by 7 points in 2016. Handicappers rate the race a toss-up.
PENNSYLVANIA 1––After reapportionment in February, the new First District keeps Bucks County and adds Democratic precincts from Montgomery County. Hillary Clinton carried it by 2 points. Republican Fitzpatrick is one of the few Republicans with endorsements from the both AFL-CIO and gun control advocate Gabby Giffords. Democrat Wallace is the wealthy grandson of former VP Henry Wallace, who served under FDR.
PENNSYLVANIA 10––Polling over the past month shows GOP incumbent Perry with an average 2-point lead with little movement. About 40% of the district is new to him since reapportionment.
UTAH 4––Until early September, GOP incumbent Love was posting modest leads. Now, these two polls show the race is either a tie or Republican McAdams with a clear lead.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Has any U.S. Supreme Court Justice ever resigned to become a U.S. Senator?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
RHODE ISLAND: Fleming & Associates, Oct. 20-24
TEXAS: Quinnipiac, Oct. 22-28
FLORIDA: UNF, Oct. 23-26; USA Today/Suffolk, Oct. 25-28
OHIO, OREGON, KANSAS: Emerson College, Oct. 26-28
ARIZONA: NBC/Marist, Oct. 23-27
CONNECTICUT: Quinnipiac, Oct. 22-28
CALIFORNIA: Gravis, Oct. 25-26
MONTANA: Gravis, Oct. 24-26
MASSACHUSETTS: Boston Globe/Suffolk, Oct, 24-28
CALIFORNIA 25: NYT/Siena, Oct. 25-28
PENNSYLVANIA 1: NYT/Siena, Oct. 26-29
PENNSYLVANIA 10: Susquehanna, Oct. 24-26
UTAH 4: KUTV, Oct. 25; NYT/Siena, Oct. 24-26
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
TRIVIA ANSWER
Yes, David Davis. He was appointed to the Supreme Court in 1862 by President Lincoln. Davis, who had managed Lincoln’s 1860 campaign for the presidency, resigned his position on the Court in 1877 to become a U.S. Senator from Illinois, where he served until 1883.
One footnote: When Davis resigned from the Court, he avoided being the pivotal vote as the only independent member of the Electoral Commission that decided the disputed election of 1876. Had Davis stayed on the Commission as a representative of the Court, it is likely that Democrat Samuel Tilden, instead of Republican Rutherford B. Hayes, would have been elected president.
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