LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Indiana, West Virginia, Nevada, Tennessee, California – Friday’s Generic Ballot Update

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, October 19, 2018

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 44% (Gallup) to 47% (Rasmussen, Fox). This is the tightest trading range we’ve seen in a while. Without the three extremes, it would be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today, which is 6 points higher than his approval rating.

Among voters nationwide 

The Economist: Democrats +5
Fox News: Democrats +7
Reuters/Ipsos: Democrats +11
Current average: Democrats: +7.7
Last week: Democrats: +9.8

RON’S COMMENT: The average Democratic advantage in the nationwide generic ballot for Congress has declined from 9.8 points last week to 7.7 points now.

Among voters in each state and district

WEST VIRGINIA: Sen. Joe Manchin (D) over Patrick Morrisey (R): +5 (45-40)
NEVADA: Jacky Rosen (D) over Sen. Dean Heller (R): even (44-44)
INDIANA: Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) over Mike Braun (R): +8 (44-36)
TENNESSEE: Phil Bredesen (D) over Marsha Blackburn (R): +1 (44-43)
CALIFORNIA: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) over Kevin de Leon (D): +13 (44-31)

WEST VIRGINIA––This survey shows a tighter race than other recent polls, which is good news for Republicans trying to pry this seat away from the Democrats in a Trump stronghold.
NEVADA: The three previous polls had Republican incumbent Heller ahead by an average of 3.7 points. This one shows a tie.
INDIANA––This poll gives Democratic incumbent Donnelly a wider lead (8 points) than the previous three polls we reported, which showed an average Donnelly lead of 3 points.
TENNESSEE––Democrat Bredesen edges Republican Blackburn by a point in this poll. Three other recent polls have had Blackburn ahead by 3, 8 and even 14 points. Observers on the ground tell us Blackburn’s margin was never that wide, although the Kavanaugh controversy was a rough time for Bredesen. In any case, we should wait and see where the next few polls go before we reach any conclusions. For now, handicappers rate the race lean Republican or toss-up.
CALIFORNIA––The average of recent polling puts Democratic incumbent Feinstein ahead by 12.7 points.

TENNESSEE: Bill Lee (R) over Karl Dean (D): +11 (48-37)

RON’S COMMENT: Republican Lee continues to dominate this race. The average of recent polling puts him ahead by 15.8 points.

WEST VIRGINIA 3: Carol Miller (R) over Richard Ojeda (D): +5 (46-41)
MAINE 2: Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R)and Jared Golden (D): even (41-41)
TEXAS 23: Rep. Will Hurd (R) over Gina Ortiz Jones (D): +15 (53-38)
NEW JERSEY 11: Mikie Sherrill (D) over Jay Webber (R): +11 (49-38)
MICHIGAN 8: Rep. Mike Bishop (R) over Elissa Slotkin (D): +3 (48-45)
MICHIGAN 11: Haley Stevens (D) and Lena Epstein (R): even (48-48)
PENNSYLVANIA 7: Susan Wild (D) over Marty Nothstein (R): +7 (48-41-L5)

WEST VIRGINIA 3––This is an open seat in a district that Trump carried by––wait for it––49 points. The average of recent polling puts Republican Miller ahead by 2.8 points. Handicappers rate the race lean Republican or toss-up.
MAINE 2––Republican incumbent Poliquin is in a tough fight for re-election. His personal rating is 44% favorable/45% unfavorable. Poliquin is currently the only GOP House member from New England. The district is largely rural. Obama carried it by 9 points in 2010 and Trump carried it by 10 points in 2016. Handicappers rate the race a toss-up.
TEXAS 23––This poll shows GOP incumbent Hurd expanding his lead to 15 points. The prior poll from five weeks ago had him 8 points ahead.
NEW JERSEY 11––This NYT/Siena poll shows Democrat Sherrill doing better (+11) than she did five weeks ago in a Monmouth poll (+4).
MICHIGAN 8––This poll has incumbent Republican Bishop with the same 3-point lead he had two weeks ago in another poll.
MICHIGAN 11––This is good news for Republicans. The previous public poll had Democrat Stevens leading by 7 points two weeks ago. Now, this new poll has the race tied. The seat is now held by Republican Dave Trott, who did not seek re-election.
PENNSYLVANIA 7: The average of recent polling puts Democrat Wild ahead by 5.7 points in this open seat that is now held by Republican Charlie Dent, who did not seek re-election.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
CALIFORNIA: LA Times/USC, Sept. 17-Oct. 14
TENNESSEE: Vanderbilt Univ., Oct. 8-13
MAINE 2, TEXAS 23, NEW JERSEY 11, WEST VIRGINIA 3: NYT/Siena, Oct. 15-18
MICHIGAN 8, 11: Target-Insyght/MRIS, Oct. 5-17
PENNSYLVANIA 7: Morning Call, Oct. 14-18

L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

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