LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Maryland, Nevada, Oregon, Rhode Island, Georgia, Arizona – 5 House Races

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Down 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 43% (CNN, Gallup, Emerson, NPR/Marist) to 49% (Rasmussen). President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today, which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.

Among voters in each state and district

NEVADA: Sen. Dean Heller (R) over Jacky Rosen (D): +2 (46-44)
ARIZONA: Martha McSally (R) over Kyrsten Sinema (D): +6 (47-41)

RON’S COMMENT: Are we seeing a Kavanaugh bounce in the West? These two polls both show Republicans leading races that have been previously led by Democrats, all generally by small margins. The average of recent polls has Republican McSally ahead by 0.3 points in Arizona and Democrat Rosen ahead by 1.3 points in Nevada.

MARYLAND (Wash Post): Gov. Larry Hogan (R) over Ben Jealous (D): +20 (58-38)
MARYLAND (Gonzales): Gov. Larry Hogan (R) over Ben Jealous (D): +18 (54-36)
NEVADA: Adam Laxalt (R) over Steve Sisolak (D): +1 (46-45)
OREGON: Gov. Kate Brown (D) over Knute Buehler (R): +4 (49-45)
RHODE ISLAND: Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) over Allan Fung (R): +14 (48-34-Others 8)
GEORGIA: Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +2 (47-45)

RON’S COMMENT: MARYLAND––The average of recent polls has Republican incumbent Hogan ahead by 19 points.

NEVADA––Numbers have bounced around. This one has Republican Laxalt with a thin lead. The average of recent polls has Republican Sisolak ahead by 1.5 points.
OREGON––The average of recent polls has Democratic incumbent Brown ahead by 2.5 points.
RHODE ISLAND––This poll shows that if the third party candidates were not in the race that Fung would get most of their votes. Raimondo’s personal rating is 46% favorable/43% unfavorable.
GEORGIA––This remains a tight race. The average of recent polls has Republican Kemp ahead by 2 points.

ILLINOIS 14: Rep. Randy Hultgren (R) over Lauren Underwood (D): +4 (47-43)
NEW YORK 1: Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) over Perry Gershon (D): +8 (49-41)
PENNSYLVANIA 16: Rep. Mike Kelly (R) over Ronald DiNicola (D): +8 (50-42)
PENNSYLVANIA 17: Rep. Conor Lamb (D) over Rep. Keith Rothfus (R): +12 (54-42)
FLORIDA 16: Rep. Vern Buchanan (R) over David Shapiro (D): +10 (52-42)
VIRGINIA 10: Jennifer Wexton (D) over U.S. Rep. Barbara Comstock (R): +7 (51-44)
NEW JERSEY 11: Mikie Sherrill (D) over Jay Webber (R): +4 (48-44)

RON’S COMMENT: We’re reporting today polls today with six GOP House incumbents––four of them are ahead (IL14, NY1, PA16, FL16) and two of them are behind (PA17, VA10). PA17 is the only race that pits two incumbents against one another. NJ 11 is an open race and the poll shows the Democrat ahead in a district that’s currently represented by a Republican (Rodney Frelinghuysen).

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NEVADA: NBC/Marist, Sept. 30-Oct. 3
ARIZONA: ABC15/OH Predictive Insights, Oct. 1-2
RHODE ISLAND: UNH, Sept. 27-Oct. 6
MARYLAND: Gonzales, Oct. 1-6; Washington Post, Oct. 4-7
GEORGIA: SurveyUSA, Oct. 3-8
OREGON: The Oregonian, Sept. 24-Oct. 7
VIRGINIA 10: CNU, Sept. 23-Oct. 2
NEW JERSEY 11: Monmouth, Oct. 3-7
FLORIDA 16: POS (R), Oct. 4-7

L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

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