Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, October 9, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 43% (CNN, Gallup, Emerson) to 51% (Rasmussen). President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today, which is 6 points higher than his approval rating.
ELECTIONS: 2018
Among voters in each state and district
SENATE
FLORIDA: Rick Scott (R) over Sen. Bill Nelson (D): +1 (46-41)
RON’S COMMENT: This race continues to be a nail-biter. This poll has Republican Scott edging incumbent Nelson. Scott wins Republicans 87-7, men 53-40 and whites 53-39. Nelson wins Democrats 87-5, independents 46-38, blacks 75-8 and women 49-40. Also: 48% of Florida’s voters approve of Trump’s job performance and 48% disapprove. But, independents are 43% approve/55% disapprove of Trump. The average of recent polls has Nelson ahead by a tiny 0.3 points.
GOVERNOR
ALASKA: Mike Dunleavy (R)over Gov. Bill Walker (I)+20 (47-27-Begich (D) 23)
FLORIDA: Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +3 (47-44)
RON’S COMMENT: ALASKA––Incumbent Walker, an independent, trails Republican Dunleavy by 20 points. Former U.S. Sen. Mark Begich, the Democrat, is running third.
FLORIDA––Democrat Gilllum holds a narrow lead over Republican DeSantis. Gillum is winning Democrats 95-1, independents 46-33, women 52-37, blacks 90-8 and Hispanics 63-24. DeSantis leads Republicans 88-6, men 51-42 and whites 50-40. The average of recent polls has Gillum ahead by 1.7 points.
HOUSE
MICHIGAN 11: Haley Stevens (D) over Lena Epstein (R): +7 (45-38)
RON’S COMMENT: Democrat Stevens worked in the Obama administration managing the Auto Task Force. Republican Epstein is a business owner who worked in Trump’s campaign. This seat is now held by GOP incumbent David Trott, who isn’t running. Trump won the district by 4 points. Handicappers rate the race lean Democratic or toss-up.
FRIENDS AND ENEMIES
Among voters nationwide
Do you consider the countries listed below to be a friend or an enemy of the United States?
% = Friend/Enemy
UK: 84%/6%
Canada: 84%/7%
Japan: 77%/8%
South Korea: 75%/12%
Germany: 72%/13%
Israel: 69%/14%
Mexico: 62%/26%
China: 29%/55%
Russia: 12%/73%
North Korea: 8%/79%
Iran: 5%/81%
RON’S COMMENT: Compared to a year ago––Canada’s friend rating is down 6 points, China is down 9, Germany is down 3, Iran is the same, Israel is down 4, Japan is down 4, North Korea is up 5, South Korea is down 1, Mexico is down 1 and Russia is down 1.
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE
Among voters nationwide
Which of these is the most important issue for you?
Health care: 18%
Social Security: 14%
The economy: 12%
Immigration: 10%
The environment: 9%
Education: 7%
Terrorism 6%
Gun control: 6%
Abortion: 6%
Medicare: 4%
Taxes: 4%
Gay rights: 2%
The budget deficit: 2%
The war in Afghanistan: 1%
Foreign policy: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: As the nation moves into the final weeks of the midterm elections, domestic issues overwhelmingly dominate the public’s agenda (94%). Foreign policy, terrorism and war issues receive a total of only 8%. (They add up to 102% because of rounding for each issue.) Note that every partisan group picks Social Security as one of their top issues::
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Which future U.S. president campaigned for the Reform Party’s presidential nomination years before he was nominated by a major party and won the White House?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
MICHIGAN 11: NYT/Siena, Oct. 1-6
ALASKA: Alaska Survey Research, Oct. 1-6
FLORIDA: Florida Southern College, Oct. 1-5
FRIENDS AND ENEMIES, TOP ISSUES: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 30-Oc. 2
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
TRIVIA ANSWER
Donald Trump. He campaigned for the 2000 presidential nomination of the Reform Party, which had nationwide ballot access and also qualified for federal funds based on its performance in the 1996 election when Ross Perot was its nominee. Trump created an exploratory committee in October 1999, but ended his campaign in February 2000, saying that the Reform Party was dysfunctional. One national poll showed Trump winning 7% of the vote in a three-way race against Al Gore and George W. Bush. Pat Buchanan would go on to win the Reform Party’s nomination in 2000. And the rest, as they say, is history.
- Democrats pick healthcare (26%), Social Security (17%) and the environment as their top three issues.
- Republicans pick immigration (19%), the economy (15%) and Social Security (14%) as their top three.
- Independents pick health care (15%), the economy (13%) and Social Security (11%) and their top three.
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