LUNCHTIME POLITICS: New Polls From 14 States

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, October 3, 2018

Up 1 from Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 41% (Quinnipiac) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.

Among voters in each state 

FLORIDA: Sen. Bill Nelson (D) over Rick Scott (R): +1 (45-44)
WEST VIRGINIA: Sen. Joe Manchin (D) over Patrick Morrisey (R): +8 (46-38-0ther 3)
NORTH DAKOTA: Kevin Cramer (R) over Heidi Heitkamp (D): +10 (51-41)
NEVADA: Jacky Rosen (D) over Sen. Dean Heller (R): +4 (47-43-L4)
NEW JERSEY (Stockton): Sen. Bob Menendez (D) over Bob Hugin (R): +2 (45-43-L3)
NEW JERSEY (Farleigh Dickinson): Sen. Bob Menendez (D) over Bob Hugin (R): +6 (43-37)
MISSOURI: Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) over Josh Hawley (R): +3 (47-44)
ARIZONA: Kyrsten Sinema (D) over Martha McSally (R): +3 (45-42)

RON’S COMMENT: Of the five Democratic Senate incumbents in today’s polling, four are leading––although three of them have margins of 3 points or less. The fifth one, Heitkamp, is trailing her GOP challenger by double digits. The one Republican incumbent included in today’s polling, Heller, is behind.

FLORIDA––This race continues to be tight. Democratic incumbent Nelson’s rating is 36% favorable/38% unfavorable. Republican Scott is 42% favorable/38% unfavorable. Despite that, Nelson is slightly ahead. Also: 45% of Florida voters support Kavanaugh’s confirmation and 32% oppose it. But, some of this poll was conducted before the Senate hearing. The average of recent polls has Nelson ahead by 2 points.
WEST VIRGINIA: Wonder why the Democratic incumbent maintains a lead in very red, extremely pro-Trump West Virginia? Here’s why: Manchin’s rating is 46% favorable/33% unfavorable compared to Republican Morrisey, who is 34% favorable/44% unfavorable. If this contest continues to be about personality, Manchin wins. If the GOP can make it a left-right choice, Morrisey wins. The average of recent polls has Manchin ahead by 9.3 points
NORTH DAKOTA: Is there a male uprising? Republican challenger Cramer leads among males 56-35, while women are tied 47-47. The average of recent polls has Cramer ahead by 6 points.
NEVADA: Incumbent Heller remains on the defensive, struggling to gain the lead. The average of recent polls has Democrat Rosen ahead by 2.3 points
NEW JERSEY: Could this be the year’s sleeper? While Democratic incumbent Menendez is favored by the pros, Republican challenger Hugin is running close. In the Stockton poll, Menendez’s personal rating is an awful 30% favorable/54% unfavorable. Hugin is much less known, but is doing better: 34% favorable/21% unfavorable. The average of recent polls has Menendez ahead by 4.7 points.
MISSOURI: The average of recent polls has GOP challenger Hawley ahead by a half a point.
ARIZONA: The average of recent polls has Democrat Sinema ahead by 4 points.

FLORIDA (WCTV): Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +1 (44-43)
FLORIDA (Mason Dixon): Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +1 (45-44)
GEORGIA: Stacey Abrams (D) over Brian Kemp (R): +2 (48-46)
ILLINOIS: J.B. Pritzker (D) over Gov. Bruce Rauner (R): +22 (49-27)
COLORADO: Jared Polis (D) over Walker Stapleton (R): +7 (47-40)
NEVADA: Steve Sisolak (D) over Adam Laxalt (R): +4 (45-41-L5)
KANSAS: Kris Kobach (R) over Laura Kelly (D): +1 (37-36-9)
SOUTH DAKOTA: Billie Sutton (D) over Kristi Noem (R): +3 (45-42-L3)
NEW YORK: Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D)over Marc Molinaro (R): +18 (56-38)

RON’S COMMENT: Two African American candidates, Gillum and Abrams, are running strong races, with one leading slightly and one slightly behind. The only incumbents in today’s gubernatorial polls are Rauner, who’s situation continues to look bleak, and Cuomo, who continues to post wide leads. The Kansas race is one to watch.

FLORIDA: Looks like Republican DeSantis is closing the gap, based on these two polls. The average of recent polls has Democrat Gillum ahead by 4 points.
GEORGIA: The average of recent polls has Republican Kemp ahead by 1 point.
ILLINOIS:The average of recent polls has Democrat Pritzker ahead by 19 points.
NEVADA: This remains a competitive race, although the average of recent polls has Democrat Sisolakahead by 6 points. Also note: 89% of Laxalt’s voters say their minds are made up, while 82% of Sisolak’s voters say the same.
KANSAS: Republican Kobach clings to a tiny edge. Independent Greg Orman is drawing 9%. Republicans go for Kobach 58-18, while Democrats go for Kelly 70-8. Independents favor Kelly 35-26. Kobach has limited personal appeal: He rates 38% favorable/47% unfavorable, while Kelly does better with 42% favorable/30% unfavorable. The average of recent polls has Kobach ahead by 1 point.
SOUTH DAKOTA: Democrat Sutton has a narrow lead in this Democratic poll over U.S. Rep. Noem for governor of this red state.In July, Noem led the same poll by 4 points. Let’s wait to see if these numbers are confirmed by a nonpartisan poll.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
FLORIDA: Gray TV/Strategic Research, Sept. 17-30; Mason Dixon, Sept. 24-27
SOUTH DAKOTA: ALG (D), Sept. 20-24
NEW YORK: Siena, Sept. 20-27
ARIZONA: Suffolk, Sept. 27-30
NEW JERSEY: Farleigh Dickinson, Sept. 26-30; Stockton, Sept. 19-27
GEORGIA: Landmark, Oct. 1
ILLINOIS: Simon Poll/SIU, Sept. 24-29
COLORADO: Keating (D)/Magellan (R): Sept. 18-20
KANSAS: Emerson, Sept. 6-8

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