LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Kavanaugh, Ford – 3-Way Race – Pennsylvania, Iowa, Michigan, Florida, California

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, September 24, 2018

Same as Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 38% (Gallup) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.

Among voters in each state and district 

FLORIDA: Rick Scott (R) and Sen. Bill Nelson (D): even (45-45)
PENNSYLVANIA: Sen. Bob Casey (D) over Lou Barletta (R): +18 (53-35)
MICHIGAN: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) over John James (R): +13 (54-41)

RON’S COMMENT: FLORIDA: Talk about close! The average of the three most recent polls has this race a tie, as does today’s poll. Not surprisingly, handicappers rate it a toss-up.
PENNSYLVANIAThe average of recent polls has Democratic incumbent Casey ahead by 16 points.
MICHIGAN: The average of recent polls has Democratic incumbent Stabenow ahead by 13 points. This poll found that voter enthusiasm is about the same for both Democrats and Republicans, which is a ray of sunshine for the GOP.

IOWA: Fred Hubbell (D) over Gov. Kim Reynolds (R): +2 (43-41-L7)
FLORIDA: Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +4 (47-43)
PENNSYLVANIA: Gov. Tom Wolf (D) over Scott Wagner (R): +19 (55-36)
MICHIGAN: Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Bill Schuette (R): +10 (48-38)

RON’S COMMENT: IOWA: This race is still fluid. In this Des Moines Register poll, 32% of Hubbell’s and 28% of Reynolds’ supporters say they could still be persuaded to vote for someone else. It appears that Reynolds has growth opportunity in the First and Fourth Congressional districts, and she needs to do better with independents––Hubbell is winning them 40-34 (the Libertarian gets 12%). Also: 57% of Hubbell’s supporters say it’s a problem that he has not disclosed tax return information. Moreover, 68% of independents say it’s a problem. Reynolds’ job rating is 46% approve/38% disapprove. Hubbell’s personal rating is 42% favorable/27% unfavorable.Handicappers rate the race toss-up or tilt Republican.
FLORIDA: Republicans have been waiting patiently for this race to turn around. But it still hasn’t happened. The average of recent polls has Democrat Gillum ahead by 4.8 points.
PENNSYLVANIA: The average of recent polls has Democratic incumbent Gov. Wolf ahead by 15.5 points.
MICHIGAN: The average of recent polls has Democrat Whitmer ahead by 11 points.

CALIFORNIA 49: Mike Levin (D) over Diane Harkey (R): +10 (51-41)

RON’S COMMENT: Democrat Levin is an environmental and energy lawyer and Republican Harkey is a former state legislator. The district covers southern Orange and western San Diego counties. The seat is currently held by the Republican Darrell Issa, who decided not to run this year after a close-call in 2016. Harkey is backed by Trump, but she’s tried to distance herself from him. Handicappers rate the race lean or tilt Democratic.

Among voters nationwide 

President Trump nominated Brett Kavanaugh to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court. If you were voting on Kavanaugh’s nomination, would you vote to confirm him or not?

Among all registered voters:
Yes, confirm: 40%
No, not confirm: 50%

Among likely voters in this year’s election:
Yes, confirm: 43%
No, not confirm: 50%

Christine Ford, a professor at Palo Alto University, claims Brett Kavanaugh, the Supreme Court nominee, sexually assaulted her in high school in the early 1980s. Kavanaugh denies her claims. From what you have heard or read, who do you believe more––Ford or Kavanaugh?

Among all registered voters:
Ford: 36%
Kavanaugh: 30%

Among likely voters in this year’s election:
Ford: 39%
Kavanaugh: 32%

RON’S COMMENT: In this Fox News poll, which was taken before the second sexual assault allegation was made against Kavanaugh last night, more voters said they opposed confirmation than supported it. Also, according to the poll, more voters tend to believe Ford than Kavanaugh. The internal demos are very interesting: Among male likely voters, 53% want to confirm Kavanaugh and 41% don’t. Among female likely voters, 34% want to confirm Kavanaugh and 55% don’t. White women with college degrees oppose confirmation by a wide 60-34. Among independents, 51% oppose confirmation and, among Republicans, only 9% oppose confirmation. Democrats overwhelmingly oppose Kavanaugh.

Among voters nationwide

% = Positive/Neutral/Negative
Barack Obama: 54%/13%/32%
Capitalism: 52%/25%/18%
Donald Trump: 39%/9%/52%
Democratic Party: 38%/23%/38%
Republican Party: 32%/22%/44%
Robert Mueller: 30%/20%/23%
The News media: 30%/23%/45%
Brett Kavanaugh: 27%/16%/30%
Socialism: 19%/26%/52%

RON’S COMMENT: Since January, Obama’s positive rating has declined 3 points and Trump’s positive rating has gone up 3 points in the WSJ/NBC poll…. Since March, the Democratic Party’s positive rating has gone up 6 points and the Republican Party’s positive rating has gone up 2 points…. Note that this poll was taken before the second allegation was made against Kavanaugh.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
IOWA: DesMoines Register, Sept. 17-20
MICHIGAN: Mitchell, Sept. 12-13
FLORIDA: UNF, Sept. 17-19
PENNSYLVANIA: Morning Call, Sept. 13-19
CALIFORNIA 49: Siena, NYT, Sept. 9-18
KAVANAUGH: Fox News, Sept. 17-19
RATINGS: WSJ/NBC, Sept. 16-19

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