LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Friday’s Generic Ballot – Minnesota, Arizona, Tennessee, Illinois – House Races

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, September 14, 2018

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on seven polls, ranging from 37% (CNN) to 46% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 41%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today, which is 13 points higher than his approval rating.

Among voters nationwide 

The Economist: Democrats +3
Reuters/Ipsos: Democrats +8
CNN: Democrats +8
NPR/Marist: Democrats +12
Quinnipiac:Democrats +14
Current average: Democrats: +9.0
Last week: Democrats: +5.3

RON’S COMMENT: The average Democratic advantage in the nationwide generic ballot has bounced back to 9 points, which is what it was week before last.

Among voters in each state and district 

MINNESOTA: Sen. Tina Smith (DFL) over Karin Housley (R): +9 (48-39-2)
MINNESOTA: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (DFL) over Jim Newberger (R): +15 (53-38-2)

RON’S COMMENT: Big gender gaps in the two Senate races in Minnesota: Smith, the Democratic incumbent who was appointed to the seat that Al Franken resigned, wins women by 29 points. Republican Housley wins men by 10 points and independents by 2 points. Handicappers rate this special election likely or lean Democratic…. Klobuchar, the other Democratic senator from Minnesota, continues to post a clear lead over her GOP rival. Klobuchar wins women by 34 points and independents by 20 points. Republican Newberger leads men by 3 points. Handicappers rate the race solid or safe Democratic.

ARIZONA: Gov. Doug Ducey (R)over David Garcia (D): +11 (51-40)
MINNESOTA: Tim Walz (DFL) over Jeff Johnson (R): +7 (47-40)
TENNESSEE: Bill Lee (R) over Karl Dean (D): +20 (55-35)
ILLINOIS: J.B. Pritzker (D) over Gov. Bruce Rauner (R): +17 (44-27-Other 11)

RON’S COMMENT: Arizona: Republican incumbent Ducey has expanded his lead to 11 points. The prior poll had his margin at 4 points. Ducey is leading men by 23 points and women by 1 point. Handicappers rate the race lean or likely Republican….Minnesota: Walz has been holding a pretty consistent lead since early August. Handicappers rate the race lean Democratic. This is an open seat, Gov. Mark Dayton (D) is not seeking re-election…. Tennessee: Republican Lee expands his lead to 20 points in this poll. The two previous polls had him averaging a 12-point advantage. Handicappers rate the race likely Republican…. Illinois: GOP incumbent Rauner has been in big trouble for re-election, and this poll confirms that situation. Handicappers rate the race lean or likely Democratic.

NORTH CAROLINA 2: Linda Coleman (D) over Rep. George Holding (R): +1 (44-43)
PENNSYLVANIA 7: Susan Wild (D) over Marty Nothstein (R): +2 (47-45-L3)
VIRGINIA 7: Rep. David Brat (R) over Abigail Spanberger (D): +4 (47-43)
WISCONSIN 1: Bryan Steil (R) over Randy Bryce (D): +6 (50-44)

RON’S COMMENT: North Carolina 2: This poll shows GOP incumbent Holding, who was first elected in 2012, in a tight race. Despite these numbers showing Coleman edging Holding, handicappers rate the race likely or lean Republican…. Pennsylvania 7: Looks like this will be a close contest in a newly drawn district, with Republican Wild now posting a slim lead. Democrat Nothstein is a former Olympic cyclist. Neither candidate is very well known among voters. Clinton won the district, as it’s now composed, by 1 point in 2016. Handicappers rate the race lean or tilt Democratic…. Virginia 7: GOP incumbent Brat, the Tea Party candidate who defeated House Leader Eric Cantor in 2014, holds a fairly narrow lead in his bid to keep this central Virginia seat. Handicappers rate the race toss-up or tilt Republican…. Wisconsin 1: This is the seat Speaker Paul Ryan is vacating. Handicappers rate the race lean Republican.

Virginia 7 TV ADS:

Spanberger (D)

Anti-Spanberger (D)

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
MINNESOTA: SurveyUSA, Sept. 6-8
NORTH CAROLINA 2: SurveyUSA for Civitas (R), Sept. 5-8
PENNSYLVANIA 7: Monmouth, Sept. 5-9
VIRGINIA 7: Siena/NYT, Sept. 9-12
WISCONSIN 1: Siena/NYT, Sept. 11-13
ILLINOIS:Illinois Broadcasters Association, Sept. 5-13

L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

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